TOTAL VOLUME:

$61.9b

24H VOL:

$249,705,498

24H TRANSACTIONS:

600,069,390

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,354,509,605

579,516

Markets across

14,317

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,116

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

50%

VS.

Kalshi:

50%

BETA
kalshi
polymarket

Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha? Odds & Prediction Markets

Volume:
$104,259
PredictionHero
JD Gaming 0%
kalshi
Match Winner 100%
polymarket
Map 2 Winner 100%
polymarket
Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Jun…020406080100

Closed: Apr 5, 2:35 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This market refers to the Valorant match between Bilibili Gaming and JD Gaming in the VCT China Group Alpha, initially scheduled for April 5 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win the match against JD Gaming. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win the match against Bilibili Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different event scopes and resolution criteria. Kalshi resolves on the outcome of the VCT China 2026 tournament (winner-takes-all binary), while Polymarket resolves on specific match-level outcomes (map handicap, individual map winners, match winner, and game total). The platforms are measuring different underlying events.

Hero Tip:

If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on the overall VCT China 2026 tournament result, not the specific April 5 match. If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on the April 5 match outcome in granular detail. These are not equivalent bets — a team can win the April 5 match but lose the tournament, or vice versa. Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket will resolve to the same outcome.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Kalshi:

    Outlier: Kalshi resolves based on the final outcome of the entire VCT China 2026 tournament, not the specific April 5 match. The market states 'If Bilibili Gaming wins the VCT China 2026: JD Gaming vs. Bilibili Gaming Valorant match... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If JD Gaming wins the VCT China 2026: JD Gaming vs. Bilibili Gaming Valorant match... then the market resolves to Yes.' This means both outcomes resolve to YES, making the market a binary indicator of tournament winner only, not match outcome.
  • Polymarket:

    Aligned with match-level resolution: Polymarket resolves on the specific April 5 match outcome across four distinct markets: Map Handicap (BLG -1.5), Map 1 Winner, Match Winner (BO3), and Games Total (O/U 2.5). Each market explicitly references 'the Valorant match between Bilibili Gaming and JD Gaming in the VCT China Group Alpha, initially scheduled for April 5 at 7:00AM ET' and resolves based on match results from vlr.gg, not tournament-level outcomes. For example, the Match Winner market resolves 'Bilibili Gaming' if Bilibili Gaming wins the match, and 'JD Gaming' if JD Gaming wins the match.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Follow the signals, not the noise

Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.

PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.