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USA vs Mexico
kalshi

What is the result of USA vs Mexico?

Volume:
$13,547,848

USA

 - Kalshi

USA - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 4, 2026

Closed: Oct 4, 12:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

USA

View
100%
60%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,263,663
N/A
N/A
$3,119,677
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Mexico

View
0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,976,300
N/A
N/A
$4,705,760
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,307,885
N/A
N/A
$1,604,789
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks whether the USA will win its upcoming international friendly soccer match against Mexico. Currently, Kalshi gives a 55.0% probability to USA winning, while a tie is priced at 26.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the USA vs Mexico professional Intl Friendlies soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 3, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official result reported by Kalshi. Keep an eye on the match itself on October 3, 2026, as the result after 90 minutes will determine the market’s outcome.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the result of the USA vs Mexico professional international friendly soccer game scheduled for October 3, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If the USA wins, the 'USA' market resolves to Yes. If Mexico wins, the 'Mexico' market resolves to Yes. If the game ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away from the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price.

Frequently asked questions

Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance their risk, while this market’s prices are determined by individuals willing to buy or sell contracts based on their own analysis. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional polls or analysts’ forecasts, as they incentivize participants to express their true beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies as new information emerges, and this market will adjust accordingly based on trader sentiment.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the USA vs Mexico match. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the most accurate assessment of the event’s potential results. The current market price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if the corresponding outcome happens.

This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the USA vs Mexico match as reported by official sources. The platform will verify the result and distribute payouts to contract holders accordingly. Traders should monitor official announcements to understand when the outcome is finalized and the market is settled.

Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 4, 2026. Any news regarding team lineups, player injuries, or changes in coaching staff could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or controversies surrounding the match could also play a role. Furthermore, major shifts in public opinion, as reflected in polls or media coverage, could impact trading activity and cause the market to move. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations.