TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.1b

24H VOL:

$132,500,164

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,797,847,289

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,760,774,483

510,905

Markets across

38,392

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,852

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF
polymarket
opinion
predict
kalshi

What is the result of FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF?

Total volume:
$3,165,530
Volume 24h:
$754,497
4%
Liquidity:
$826,047
169%
Open interest:
$2,375,145
30%

BAR

all

4 markets

Predict

Polymarket

Kalshi

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 25, 2026

Time left: 02d:05h:44m

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?

61%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 61¢ buys you 164 shares | Odds: 61% Total Payout: $164 | Net Profit: $64 Multiplier: 1.64x | ROI: 64% APY not meaningful 2 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

BAR

Trade
61%
Yes 61¢No 40¢
1¢
$54,417
$11,241
17%
N/A
N/A
2d 5h 44m
active
polymarket

FC Barcelona

Trade
61%
1%
Yes 61¢No 40¢
1¢
$95,143
$94,768
20%
920%
N/A
2d 3h 44m
active
kalshi

Barcelona

Trade
60%
Yes 60¢No 41¢
1¢
N/A
$690,741
22%
686%
$551,489
2d 6h 44m
active
opinion

Barcelona wins

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 3h 44m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
60.1%
Yes 60.7¢No 40.3¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 5¢
kalshi

Real Madrid

Trade
26%
1%
Yes 26¢No 75¢
1¢
N/A
$1,874,609
31%
1,015%
$1,603,661
2d 6h 44m
active
predict

REA

Trade
25%
Yes 25¢No 76¢
1¢
$20,771
$14,383
42%
N/A
N/A
2d 5h 44m
active
polymarket

Real Madrid CF

Trade
25%
Yes 25¢No 76¢
1¢
$150,592
$207,836
56%
1,917%
N/A
2d 3h 44m
active
opinion

Real Madrid wins

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 3h 44m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
25.8%
Yes 25.3¢No 75.7¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 5¢
predict

Draw

Trade
17%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
1¢
$15,597
$6,111
24%
N/A
N/A
2d 5h 44m
active
kalshi

Tie

Trade
16%
Yes 16¢No 85¢
1¢
N/A
$240,753
43%
1,847%
$219,995
2d 6h 44m
active
polymarket

Draw (FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF)

Trade
16%
Yes 16¢No 85¢
1¢
$489,528
$25,088
28%
849%
N/A
2d 3h 44m
active
opinion

Draw

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 3h 44m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
16%
Yes 16.3¢No 84.7¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 5¢
Total markets: 12

Intro

This market tracks whether FC Barcelona will win their professional La Liga soccer game against Real Madrid CF on October 25, 2026. Currently, the aggregated probability of FC Barcelona winning is 60.0%, while Real Madrid winning is estimated at 25.0%. This forecast combines data from Polymarket, Opinion, Predict, and Kalshi, and will resolve based on whether Barcelona wins the game after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the game’s official result. Keep an eye on the match itself on October 25, 2026, to see if Barcelona secures a victory.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Cancellation handling differs between platforms, creating inconsistent resolution outcomes.Hero tip: Consider the cancellation scenario when trading. Polymarket's 'win' markets will resolve negatively on cancellation, while Kalshi's 'tie' market will resolve positively.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game, the market will resolve to 'No' for win markets. Resolution source is official statistics, with fallback to Flashscore/Sofascore/consensus.
  • Kalshi: If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game, the market resolves to 'Yes' for the tie market. The tie market resolves to 'Yes' if the result is a tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for Sunday, October 25, 2026 between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid CF.

Kalshi

The event covers three possible outcomes of the professional La Liga soccer match between Barcelona and Real Madrid scheduled for October 25, 2026: a Barcelona win, a Real Madrid win, or a tie. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its corresponding outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, and no extra time or penalty shootouts are considered. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price following the platform's guidelines. The event explicitly excludes any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Predict

This event is for the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for Sunday, October 25, 2026 between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid CF.

Opinion

This market refers to the La Liga match between Barcelona (BAR) and Real Madrid (REA), scheduled for 2026-10-25 20:00 UTC. - BAR: If Barcelona wins, the outcome is settled as "Yes"; otherwise "No". - DRAW: If the match ends in a draw, the outcome is "Yes". - REA: If Real Madrid wins, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise "No". Settlement will be based on the result at the end of regular time (90 minutes) plus stoppage time. If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match is played and completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, the DRAW option will resolve to "Yes", while both BAR and REA options will resolve to "No". The primary settlement source will be the official result published by La Liga. If the governing body or event organizers have not published the final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus from credible sources may be used instead. Note: Opinion will resolve strictly based on the first officially published result from the designated source. Any subsequent revisions will not affect this resolution. Source: https://www.laliga.com/

Frequently asked questions

The El Clásico market dashboard on PredictionHero aggregates real-time trading data from multiple prediction market platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi. It provides a consensus view of the probability of various outcomes for the FC Barcelona versus Real Madrid CF match. Currently, the total volume across these platforms is $3,165,530, with $701,649 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to see how the collective wisdom of the crowd is pricing the event and compare it to other sources of information. The dashboard offers a comprehensive look at the El Clásico market.

Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the differing incentives and information sources of the participants. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, factoring in a margin for themselves, while prediction market participants are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This can lead to prediction markets reflecting a more accurate assessment of probabilities, especially as more information becomes available. However, sportsbooks often have lower transaction costs and wider availability. The spread between this market and sportsbook odds can vary, potentially reaching 0.5 percentage points.

On Polymarket, this market is priced by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome of the match. Kalshi operates similarly, but differences in user base, trading fees, and market-specific rules can cause price discrepancies. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. These platforms may also attract different types of traders, leading to variations in how information is incorporated into the price. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25? at 60.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Barcelona wins at 60.0%, illustrating this divergence in sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the FC Barcelona versus Real Madrid CF match as reported by official sources. The winning team, or a draw, will determine the outcome of this market. Traders should monitor official announcements for the final result, as this will be the basis for settlement across all aggregated platforms.

Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 25, 2026. Key player injuries or suspensions for either FC Barcelona or Real Madrid CF would likely have a significant impact. Unexpected changes in team form, managerial decisions, or even weather conditions could also shift the probabilities. Major news events related to the clubs, such as contract disputes or off-field controversies, might also affect trading activity. Any information that alters perceptions of the teams’ relative strengths will likely cause movement in this market.