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US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
polymarket
limitless

Will the US end the Iranian blockade?

Jul 13, 2026, 2:04 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$40,117,990
Volume 24h:
$3,523,451
47%
Liquidity:
$580,710
68%
Open interest:
$2,979,913N/A

March 31

 - Polymarket

March 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?

59%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 59¢ buys you 169 shares | Odds: 59% Total Payout: $169 | Net Profit: $69 Multiplier: 1.69x | ROI: 69% | APY: 215% 167 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

March 31

Trade
59%
Yes 59¢No 42¢
1¢
$97,467
$58,403
21%
48%
N/A
5mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
37%
5%
Yes 37.1¢No 63.2¢
0.3¢
$177,414
$3,340,618
4%
12%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
limitless

December 31

Trade
37%
5%
Yes 36.8¢No 63.2¢
1.5¢
N/A
$75
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
36.9%
Yes 37¢No 63.2¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 1.5¢
polymarket

November 30

Trade
24%
1%
Yes 25¢No 77¢
2¢
$45,254
$150,717
8%
75%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
11%
2%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
$177,981
$4,725,247
2%
23%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
limitless

October 31

Trade
11%
3%
Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢
1¢
N/A
$31
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
10.5%
Yes 10.8¢No 89.8¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

October 15

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.2¢
0.2¢
$82,594
$3,413,515
4%
64%
N/A
23h 22m
active
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,588,313
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

September 30

View
N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
No
polymarket

August 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,936,928
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 15

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,291,961
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 7

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,973,355
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,780,252
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 14

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,759,863
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 22

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,478,692
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 21

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,462,592
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,106,597
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 9

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$697,453
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 11

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$607,660
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 10

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$543,176
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 14

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$495,637
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 12

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$490,308
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 8

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$417,212
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 13

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$404,258
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 24

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$351,769
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 28

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of the US government announcing the end of its naval blockade of Iran. Currently, the consensus probability of the US announcing an end to the blockade by March 31, 2027 is 68.5%. This prediction aggregates data from Polymarket and Limitless, and will be resolved based on official information from the United States government, including statements from the President, Department of Defense, and CENTCOM. Keep an eye on developments leading up to the resolution date estimate of April 1, 2027, as this marks the end of the betting period and when a definitive announcement would be expected.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Limitless markets utilize the same resolution criteria and source information, making them consistent.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is triggered by a public and official announcement from the US government ending the Iranian naval blockade.
  • The announcement must clearly and unambiguously communicate the end of the blockade, not merely allude to it.
  • Statements describing prospective, contingent, or conditional ends to the blockade do not qualify.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Partial Changes: An exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port does not qualify as an end to the blockade.
  • Unofficial Statements: Anonymous, leaked, or statements by unauthorized individuals do not qualify.
  • Reversal of Announcement: The market resolves to 'Yes' upon the initial qualifying announcement, even if the decision is later reversed.
Timing: Resolution will occur as soon as a qualifying announcement is made, up to and including the specified date in each market (ranging from July 14, 2026 to December 31, 2026).Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Limitless

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Limitless, the Iranian blockade market dashboard tracks the probability of the US announcing the end of restrictions on Iran before Apr 1, 2027. Currently, there’s a consensus view, with combined volume reaching $40,117,990, indicating significant interest in this geopolitical event. The 24-hour volume is $303,493, showing active trading. This dashboard aggregates data from both platforms, providing a comprehensive overview of the market’s sentiment regarding the potential lifting of the Iranian blockade. The current spread between Polymarket and Limitless is 21.8.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often provide a more accurate forecast than traditional polling. This is because traders have ‘skin in the game’ and are incentivized to make informed predictions, leading to a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect. While public opinion polls can gauge sentiment, they are susceptible to biases and inaccuracies. This market reflects real-money bets on the likelihood of the US ending the Iranian blockade, offering a potentially more reliable signal than surveys. It’s important to note that prediction markets focus on *what will happen*, not *what people think will happen*.

Prices on Polymarket and Limitless can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, differing fee structures or access restrictions might contribute to discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket currently favors the outcome of the US announcing the end of the Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026 at 58.5%, while Limitless leans toward the same outcome at 36.8%. These differences are normal and reflect the independent price-setting mechanisms of each venue.

This market resolves around Apr 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on whether the US government officially announces the end of the Iranian blockade before the resolution date. Any official statement from the US State Department, White House, or other relevant government agency will be considered. The outcome will be determined by a review of publicly available information, ensuring transparency and objectivity. Traders should monitor news sources for updates leading up to the resolution date.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in US-Iran diplomatic relations, such as renewed negotiations or breakthroughs in nuclear talks, would likely cause price fluctuations. Geopolitical events in the Middle East, including regional conflicts or escalations, could also influence the market. Furthermore, changes in US domestic policy or political pressure related to Iran could move the odds. Unexpected statements from key policymakers or significant economic developments affecting Iran’s economy are additional catalysts to watch. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders.