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UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$1,437,816

Asu Almabayev

 - Kalshi

Asu Almabayev - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 1:34 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Asu Almabayev

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$472,230
N/A
N/A
$349,721
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$420,843
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18,894
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$510
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$42
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Charles Johnson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$517,512
N/A
N/A
$415,565
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,227
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$788
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Johnson to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$376
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Almabayev to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$302
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This event group tracks the outcome of a UFC Fight Night flyweight main card bout between Asu Almabayev and Charles Johnson scheduled for June 27, 2026. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Kalshi shows 100.0% probability for the event occurring as scheduled. Markets span fight outcome, method of victory, round duration, and distance completion, with resolution determined by official UFC records at ufc.com/events. Watch for any official UFC announcements regarding fighter availability or bout card changes prior to the June 27 fight date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines comprehensive fight-outcome and method-specific markets with explicit edge-case resolution (50-50 for no-contests, postponements, draws); Kalshi provides only a binary winner market lacking specification of contingency scenarios.Hero tip: Polymarket offers superior granularity and clarity on edge cases. If trading Kalshi, contact support to confirm how draws, no-contests, and postponements beyond the event date are handled, as these scenarios are unspecified in the provided description.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Eight distinct markets covering fight winner, submission, KO/TKO (general and by-fighter), round duration (0.5, 1.5, 2.5), and distance completion. All markets explicitly resolve to 50-50 if bout is no-contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 11, 2026. Draws and disqualifications resolve to No (except distance market resolves Yes for judge-decided draws). Resolution source: official UFC information.
  • Kalshi: Single binary market: resolves Yes if Charles Johnson OR Asu Almabayev wins. No specification of how draws, disqualifications, no-contests, or postponements are handled. Resolution source not explicitly stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Asu Almabayev" if Asu Almabayev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Charles Johnson at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres, scheduled for June 27, 2026. It will resolve to "Charles Johnson" if Charles Johnson is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 11, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

This market covers the professional MMA fight between Asu Almabayev and Charles Johnson originally scheduled for June 27, 2026. Resolution depends on the fight's official outcome: if Almabayev wins, that market resolves to Yes; if Johnson wins, that market resolves to Yes. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. In the event of a tie or no contest, both fighter markets resolve to 50/50. Should the fight be cancelled or rescheduled more than two weeks away, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price fights differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs directly through supply and demand. Prediction market prices often reflect sharper, crowd-sourced analysis because traders risk real capital on accuracy. Comparing this market's odds to major sportsbooks can reveal where public perception diverges from professional oddsmakers, though both sources should be cross-referenced for a complete picture before placing any wager.

Polymarket and Kalshi may show different prices due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and market structure. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with different risk appetites and information sets, so prices can lag or lead depending on which venue processes new information faster. Lower liquidity on one platform can also amplify price swings. Monitoring both venues helps identify arbitrage opportunities and reveals which market segment is more confident in a particular outcome.

Fighter injuries, training camp updates, and official weigh-in results typically drive significant price moves in combat sports markets. News about either competitor's recent performance, coaching changes, or public statements can shift trader conviction. Betting line movements at major sportsbooks often precede prediction market repricing, so monitoring external odds provides an early signal. Social media sentiment, analyst commentary, and any last-minute fight card changes can also trigger volatility. Close attention to MMA news outlets in the days leading up to the bout often reveals catalysts before they fully price in.