Trump out as President before 2027? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Trump out as President before 2027?
Start: 2025-11-05T21:57:19.399Z
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will cease to be President of the United States by December 31, 2026. The aggregated consensus probability for Trump no longer being president by that date is 30.0%, drawn from Limitless, Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict, with resolution determined by the consensus of credible reporting. The event will resolve on the permanent removal from office, such as resignation, impeachment with conviction, or sustained 25th Amendment Section 4 invocation. Watch for any official announcements or proceedings leading to permanent removal before the end of the betting period on December 31, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All four platforms (Limitless, Polymarket, Predict, Opinion) specify identical resolution criteria, timing, and source methodology with no material divergence.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

Market resolves YES if Donald Trump resigns, is removed, or otherwise ceases to be President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Announcement of resignation or removal before market end date triggers immediate YES resolution, regardless of when the announced action takes effect
Only permanent removal qualifies: resignation, impeachment with conviction, or sustained 25th Amendment Section 4 invocation (both Houses of Congress by two-thirds vote upholding VP and Cabinet determination)
Temporary removal does not qualify: temporary 25th Amendment Section 3 invocation, unsustained Section 4 invocation, or impeachment without removal all resolve NO
Market resolves NO if Trump remains President through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET

Edge cases & clarifications:

Announcement vs. Effective Date: If Trump announces resignation or removal before market end date, market resolves YES immediately, even if the actual departure from office occurs after December 31, 2026
Sustained 25th Amendment Section 4: Requires both Houses of Congress to vote by two-thirds majority upholding VP and Cabinet determination of presidential inability; this permanent removal qualifies for YES
Temporary 25th Amendment Section 3: Temporary invocation under Section 3 (VP assumes powers during president's stated inability) does not qualify; market resolves NO
Impeachment Without Conviction: Impeachment by House alone, without Senate conviction by two-thirds majority, does not constitute removal and resolves NO

Timing: Resolution occurs at announcement of permanent removal (if before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET) or at market end date (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). If Trump remains in office through end date, market resolves NO.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Prabowo Subianto ceases to be President of the Republic of Indonesia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Prabowo Subianto's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Prabowo Subianto and the government of Indonesia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Limitless

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for whether Trump will leave office before Jun 30, 2027 across Polymarket and Predict. It tracks the consensus probability from both platforms, total group volume of $14,713,006, and 24-hour activity of $95,569. By monitoring multiple prediction markets simultaneously, you see how professional traders and the broader crowd are pricing this political outcome. The dashboard updates continuously, letting you compare cross-platform sentiment and spot divergences that may signal new information or market inefficiency.

Prediction markets and polls measure different things. Polls capture voter preferences or approval at a snapshot in time, while prediction markets reflect traders' beliefs about actual outcomes weighted by financial incentive. For this event, market participants are pricing in constitutional, legal, and political scenarios over a multi-year horizon. Markets often diverge from polls because they incorporate tail risks, insider information, and long-term uncertainty that surveys do not capture. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are pricing in scenarios polls may underweight.

Polymarket and Predict may show different odds due to variations in liquidity, user base composition, and trading dynamics. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket typically has deeper liquidity and attracts professional traders, while Predict may draw a different demographic or have lower volume. Regulatory differences, fee structures, and timing of large trades can also create temporary spreads. These price gaps often close as arbitrageurs trade across platforms, but they persist when market depth or access barriers differ between venues.

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether Trump has ceased serving as President of the United States before that date. This could occur through resignation, removal via impeachment and conviction, death, or other constitutional means. The outcome is binary: either Trump remains in office through Jun 30, 2027, or he does not. Traders should monitor political developments, legal challenges, and health-related news that could influence this outcome over the coming years.

Key catalysts include impeachment proceedings, criminal convictions or legal rulings affecting eligibility, significant health events, or voluntary resignation. Major political crises, electoral developments, or constitutional challenges could shift market odds. International incidents, economic shocks, or shifts in congressional dynamics may also influence trader expectations. Additionally, statements from Trump, Congress, or the judiciary regarding presidential succession or removal could trigger repricing. Markets will react to any event perceived as materially changing the probability of Trump leaving office before the resolution date.

Trump out as President before 2027?

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June 30, 2027