TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of a music track during a specific week, focusing on how many times it is streamed online. The outcome depends on whether the stream count surpasses various thresholds, reflecting audience engagement and popularity over a short period.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether the song "Tough Love" by Nessa Barrett achieves specific streaming milestones within the U.S. during the tracking week from September 25, 2026, to October 1, 2026. Multiple markets correspond to different streaming thresholds, ranging from 50,000 to 10 million streams. All markets will resolve based on data reported by Luminate’s API at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. Luminate Data, LLC serves as a neutral metrics provider and does not endorse or influence the outcomes of any prediction markets associated with this event.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the first week streaming numbers of Tough Love. While analysts often rely on historical data and genre comparisons, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders actively assessing various factors, including social media buzz, marketing campaigns, and the show’s premise. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently than conventional wisdom, offering a potentially valuable signal for those following the show’s launch. This comparison provides a unique view beyond standard predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations regarding the show's viewership, differing from static pre-event predictions. The current top outcome is unavailable, and the chance percentage is also unavailable.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official streaming numbers for the first week of Tough Love are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of streams across all platforms where the show is available. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the result. Traders should monitor official announcements from the streaming service for the definitive data used in resolution, as this market is designed to reflect real-world viewership.
Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Positive or negative reviews from prominent critics could influence viewer expectations, impacting trading activity. Unexpected marketing pushes or viral social media trends related to the show could also drive price changes. Any news regarding the show’s availability on different streaming platforms or potential controversies surrounding the cast could also be catalysts. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the show’s potential viewership will likely be reflected in the market’s price action.
