TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which movie will rank highest on the US Netflix Top 10 chart for the week ending the Sunday before October 6, 2026. The outcome depends entirely on viewer streaming behavior during that specific period.
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether a specific movie appears in the top position of the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on October 6, 2026. The chart reflects viewing data from the week ending the previous Sunday, with all markets closing at 11:59 PM ET the day before publication. No endorsement or affiliation exists between Netflix and the market operator; all references to Netflix are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional media predictions or box office analysts. While analysts may focus on pre-release hype or star power, the market reflects real-time viewership data and changing consumer preferences. Discrepancies can arise from factors analysts may underestimate, such as word-of-mouth or the impact of Netflix's recommendation algorithms. It's a fascinating look at how different forms of forecasting approach the same question.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a particular movie being the most popular. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders react to news, viewership numbers, and other relevant information. This creates a constantly updating assessment of the likely winner, driven by the collective wisdom of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top US Netflix movie for the week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on official viewership data released by Netflix or a reputable third-party source tracking streaming performance. The market will settle to 100 for the movie that achieves the highest viewership during the specified timeframe, and 0 for all other options. This ensures a clear and objective resolution based on actual viewing figures.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected critical acclaim or negative reviews for a newly released film could shift sentiment. Major social media buzz or viral trends surrounding a particular movie could also influence viewership. Furthermore, Netflix’s own promotional efforts, such as featuring a film prominently on its homepage, could impact its performance. Finally, the release of competing films on other platforms might affect relative viewership, causing traders to reassess probabilities in this market.
