TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which film appears at the top position on the US Netflix movie chart for the week ending on Sunday, October 18, 2026, with the chart being published on Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Participants speculate on whether specific titles will claim the number one spot during that period.
Kalshi
The event determines the highest-ranked US Netflix movie for the week ending the Sunday before October 20, 2026, with the chart published on that Tuesday. Each market corresponds to a specific film, resolving to 'Yes' if that film occupies the #1 position on the published chart. All markets share identical secondary rules regarding chart update timing, closure at 11:59 PM ET the day before publication, and a standard disclaimer confirming no endorsement from Netflix. The outcome for each market is binary, based solely on the chart's #1 ranking for the specified week.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or expert predictions, potentially incorporating a wider range of data and reacting more quickly to new information. While analysts may focus on pre-release hype or critical reception, the market reflects real-time viewership and user engagement. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies and the influence of diverse participant perspectives within this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a movie’s likelihood of being the top pick. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders enter the market and express their views, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of the most probable outcome based on real-time trading activity.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top movie on US Netflix is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on official Netflix rankings or widely recognized third-party data sources tracking viewership. The market will settle to 100 for the movie that holds the top spot at the time of resolution, and 0 for all other options. This ensures a clear and objective outcome based on actual streaming data.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Unexpected critical acclaim or negative reviews for a newly released film could shift sentiment. Major social media trends or viral marketing campaigns could also drive viewership and impact the odds. Additionally, Netflix’s own promotional efforts, such as featuring a movie prominently on its homepage, could influence user choices. Finally, the release of competing content on other streaming platforms might draw viewers away, affecting which movie ultimately claims the top spot in this market.
