TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which Netflix show will top the global rankings in a specific week, reflecting viewer preferences and streaming trends. The outcome depends on audience engagement and popularity over a set period.
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether the specified show achieves the number one position on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart published on October 13, 2026. The chart reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday, with all markets closing at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart's release. No endorsement from Netflix is implied, and all references are used descriptively. The resolution hinges solely on the public chart's ranking, with identical secondary rules applying uniformly across all markets.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or media predictions, as traders directly put their money behind their beliefs. While analysts may focus on critical reception or star power, the market reflects real-time viewership and buzz. Discrepancies between the two can highlight overlooked factors or signal a potential shift in public taste, offering a unique view beyond conventional entertainment forecasting. This provides a dynamic assessment of which show is most likely to dominate viewership.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in each show's likelihood of being the top performer. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect the latest market sentiment. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the most probable outcome, driven by the collective intelligence of the participants.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top global Netflix show for the week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on publicly available viewership data released by Netflix or a reputable third-party source tracking global streaming statistics. The market will settle to 100 for the show that achieves the highest viewership, as measured by these sources. Traders will then receive payouts based on the final outcome and their positions in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major promotional pushes for a particular show, critical acclaim from influential reviewers, or viral social media trends can all impact viewership and, consequently, the market odds. Unexpected releases of new episodes or seasons, or even significant news events that draw viewers to specific content, could also cause shifts. Furthermore, any announcements regarding Netflix’s viewership metrics or global popularity rankings will likely influence trading activity and price adjustments in this market.
