TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Draw You Out (From The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date. Participants can speculate on whether particular songs or artists will lead the rankings, reflecting real-time viewer engagement trends.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its specified music video occupies the top position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos - United States chart for October 9, 2026. All markets operate independently, with resolution based solely on YouTube's publicly available chart data for that date. None of the markets imply endorsement from YouTube, and all references to YouTube branding are used descriptively without suggesting affiliation or approval from the platform.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting viral music video success is highly speculative. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical polls or expert opinions. This is because traders are incentivized to make accurate predictions with their own capital, leading to a potentially more informed assessment. If polls or analysts were to suggest a clear frontrunner, we might expect to see that video's price decrease (and probability increase) in this market as traders act on that information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different music videos. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability of winning. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. The market operates much like a stock exchange, with traders aiming to profit from correctly predicting the outcome. The current prices are determined solely by supply and demand within Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the music video with the highest number of views on YouTube in the USA on October 9, 2026, will be declared the winner. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from YouTube's official statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the most popular music video. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. The release of highly anticipated music videos from popular artists would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok could also boost the popularity of certain songs and videos. Major marketing campaigns or endorsements could also influence viewership numbers. Furthermore, any news or controversies surrounding the artists involved could impact their videos' performance. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.
