TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Ramayana: Mangal Rang (Song) | Namit M, Nitesh T | AR Rahman, Arijit Singh, Shreya Ghoshal, Kumar V
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest view count in the United States on a specific day, reflecting current audience preferences and trends in online music consumption.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its specified music video secures the top position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos chart for the United States on October 28, 2026. The outcome hinges solely on YouTube's official chart ranking for that date. All markets explicitly state that YouTube has not endorsed these products, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation between YouTube and the event organizer. The competition is straightforward, with each entry vying for the singular #1 spot, and no additional performance metrics or secondary conditions influence the resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for this specific event, as comprehensive pre-event predictions for YouTube chart performance are not widely available. However, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the potential for a music video to reach the top spot. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probabilities and any available analyst predictions could indicate areas where the market perceives information differently or anticipates unexpected developments in viewership trends.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether a specific music video will be number one. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective assessment of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices will adjust, providing a dynamic representation of the perceived probability of each outcome. The current market price indicates the cost to purchase a contract that pays out if the corresponding music video ranks first.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final ranking of music videos on YouTube’s Daily Top Music Videos chart for the United States, dated October 28, 2026, will determine the winning outcome. The market will settle based on the official chart data released by YouTube, providing a transparent and objective determination of which music video achieved the top position. Traders should monitor this data closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. A major marketing push or viral campaign for a particular music video could drive increased viewership and shift the odds. Unexpected collaborations or endorsements from influential figures could also impact a video’s popularity. Furthermore, any news or controversies surrounding the artists involved could affect public perception and influence viewing numbers. Shifts in overall music trends or the release of highly anticipated competing videos could also cause substantial changes in the market’s probabilities leading up to Nov 11, 2026.
