TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which music video garners the highest viewership on YouTube's US Daily Top Music Videos chart for a specific date. It reflects audience engagement and popularity trends in the music video landscape, showcasing how viewers interact with new releases and viral content on a given day.
Kalshi
The event determines the outcome based on YouTube Charts' Daily Top Music Videos ranking for the United States on October 26, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular video occupies the #1 position on the chart for that date. All markets share identical secondary rules clarifying that neither YouTube nor Kalshi endorses these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation. The resolution hinges solely on YouTube's publicly available chart data for the specified day, with no additional qualifications or adjustments applied beyond the primary ranking condition for each individual market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this type of event. Music video popularity is notoriously difficult to predict, and most analysts focus on broader trends rather than pinpointing the exact top video on a specific day. However, this market allows for a crowdsourced prediction, aggregating the insights of many individuals, which may offer a different perspective than individual expert opinions. The market’s wisdom of the crowd may prove more accurate than relying on a single analyst’s assessment of the most popular music video.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence price movements, creating a dynamic environment where odds can shift rapidly based on new information or changes in sentiment. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to a real-time assessment of the most likely outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official YouTube charts data for the Daily Top Music Videos United States chart dated October 26, 2026. The video that ranks highest on that chart will be considered the winning outcome for this market. The resolution process relies on publicly available data and ensures a transparent and objective determination of the result, reflecting the actual performance of music videos on YouTube.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 9, 2026. A major artist releasing a highly anticipated music video close to the target date would likely shift the odds. Unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok could also boost a video’s popularity. Furthermore, significant media coverage or endorsements from influential figures could impact viewership. Any news regarding potential collaborations or surprise drops from popular artists could also cause substantial price movements in this market, as traders react to the changing landscape of music video releases.
