TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date. Each market corresponds to a different music video, and the outcome depends on which one tops the chart that day.
Kalshi
The event determines the top-ranked music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos - United States chart for October 11, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular video holds the #1 position on the chart for the specified date. All markets share the same resolution criterion, based solely on YouTube's official chart ranking. None of the markets or products are endorsed by YouTube, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no affiliation or endorsement by YouTube. The resolution hinges exclusively on the chart position of the named video on the exact dated chart.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting viral music video success is highly subjective and often relies on qualitative assessments. However, prediction markets like this one aggregate the informed opinions of many individuals, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than any single analyst’s prediction. The collective wisdom of traders in this market may identify under- or overvalued outcomes compared to what conventional wisdom suggests, reflecting a broader range of factors influencing a video’s potential popularity.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different music videos being the top daily video, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of its probability. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, and the implied probability of that outcome rises. Conversely, selling a contract lowers its price and probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and trading activity, providing a real-time estimate of the likelihood of each video topping the charts.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve based on which music video is officially listed as the top daily music video on YouTube’s Daily Top Music Videos chart for the United States, dated October 11, 2026. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from YouTube and will reflect the official ranking at the time of determination, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for this market.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market. A major artist releasing a highly anticipated music video close to the target date would likely shift odds. Unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok or Instagram could also boost a video’s popularity, influencing trading activity. Furthermore, any news or controversies surrounding artists or their music could impact viewership and, consequently, the market. Finally, the release of official YouTube analytics data or previews of upcoming videos could provide valuable information to traders, leading to price adjustments.
