TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
expectations (feat. Chappell Roan) (Official Music Video)
Ramayana: Ravana Tandav (Song) | Namit M, Nitesh T | Ranbir, Yash | AR Rahman, Vishal D, Kumar V
GAVIN:D x Violette Wautier - อย่ามากกว่าฉันก็พอ [IN MY ROOM SESSION]
Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip
Veezha Veera Lyrical (Tamil) | OM | Dhanush | Mammootty | Sai Pallavi | Rajkumar | Sai Abhyankkar
Description
This event tracks which music video will achieve the highest view count globally on YouTube for a specific day in the future. It reflects the competitive nature of online content popularity, where creators and audiences engage through views to determine the leading video.
Kalshi
The event determines the top-ranked global music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos chart for October 23, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video; resolution occurs if that video secures the #1 position on the specified chart for that date. All markets operate independently, meaning only the market tied to the actual chart-topping video will resolve positively. YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube. The outcome hinges solely on YouTube's publicly available chart data for the defined date.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this specific event, as predicting viral music video success is highly speculative. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and real-time sentiment than typical analyst predictions. This can lead to differences in perceived probabilities, as this market reflects the aggregated wisdom of many traders, rather than the opinion of a few experts. It's a dynamic comparison, and discrepancies can emerge as the event approaches and more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different music videos, and the prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand. As more people buy a contract for a particular video, its price increases, indicating a higher probability of it being the top daily video. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all participants on Kalshi regarding the likelihood of each outcome. This creates a dynamic and efficient price discovery process.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top daily music video on YouTube globally for October 23, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The video with the highest number of views on that specific day, as reported by YouTube's official data, will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and will not rely on any subjective interpretation or external judgment.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Major artist announcements, new music video releases from popular artists, and viral marketing campaigns are all potential catalysts. Unexpected trends on platforms like TikTok or Instagram that drive views to a specific song could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, any controversies or significant media coverage surrounding an artist or video could shift trader sentiment. The release date and initial reception of highly anticipated music videos will be particularly important factors influencing trading activity in this market.
