TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 14: z5y8Clp_TdE]
Olivia Rodrigo - expectations (feat. Chappell Roan) (Official Music Video)
KAALI HOODIE (MUSIC VIDEO) SIDHU MOOSE WALA FT BOHEMIA | THE KIDD
GAVIN:D x Violette Wautier - อย่ามากกว่าฉันก็พอ [IN MY ROOM SESSION]
Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip
Description
This event tracks which music video will achieve the highest daily view count globally on YouTube for a specific date. Participants speculate on the popularity of various music videos, with the outcome determined by YouTube's official chart rankings for that day.
Kalshi
The event determines the top-ranking global music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos chart for October 20, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that video secures the #1 position on the chart for the specified date. All markets operate independently, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others. The charts are published by YouTube, and the rankings reflect global view counts for the date in question. Participants should note that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting viral music video success is highly speculative. However, prediction markets often synthesize information from a wide range of sources, potentially offering a more accurate view than individual expert opinions. If analysts were to release predictions, it would be interesting to see how their assessments align with the collective wisdom reflected in this market’s pricing. Discrepancies could indicate areas where the market perceives information differently than conventional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices will fluctuate, providing a real-time indication of expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume provide insights into the confidence level behind each prediction, allowing traders to assess the potential risk and reward associated with each position.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official ranking of music videos on YouTube’s Daily Top Music Videos Global chart dated October 20, 2026. The video holding the number one position on that chart will determine the winning outcome for this market. Traders should monitor official YouTube charts as the resolution date approaches to stay informed.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major promotional campaigns by artists or record labels, unexpected viral trends on social media platforms like TikTok, and significant media coverage could all shift public attention towards specific music videos. The release of highly anticipated music videos from popular artists in the weeks leading up to October 20, 2026, would also be a key catalyst. Any news regarding artist collaborations or controversies could also influence trading activity and move the odds in this market.
