TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 2, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip
Casa Tupka Anthemo | @YoYoHoneySingh feat. Priyanshi | Full Video
Yeshanagula | The Paradise | Nani | Keerthy Suresh | Anirudh Ravichander | Srikanth Odela
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest view count globally on YouTube for a specific day in the future. Each contender represents a unique song or artist, and the outcome depends purely on audience engagement metrics for that date.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' exclusively if its designated music video secures the top position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos - Global chart for October 2, 2026. All markets operate independently, meaning only the video achieving the #1 rank triggers a 'Yes' resolution for its corresponding market, with all others resolving to 'No.' Neither YouTube nor Kalshi endorses these markets; references to YouTube are used descriptively and do not imply any formal partnership or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. Often, this market demonstrates the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially outperforming individual expert predictions. While analysts may focus on established artists or pre-release hype, the market incorporates a broader range of factors and real-time data. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies or biases, with analysts potentially underestimating the impact of viral trends or unexpected hits. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are subjective, while this market represents a quantifiable, aggregated prediction.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a particular music video’s chance of topping the charts. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the most likely winner. The market depth, or the number of buy and sell orders at different price levels, indicates the level of confidence traders have in each outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the music video with the highest total view count on YouTube globally on October 2, 2026, will be considered the winning outcome. The data will be sourced from publicly available YouTube analytics and verified to ensure accuracy. The resolution process focuses on objective viewership numbers, providing a clear and transparent determination of the market’s outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 16, 2026. Major music releases from popular artists, unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok, and significant marketing campaigns could all shift trader sentiment. Collaborations between artists, controversies surrounding a particular musician, or even changes in YouTube’s algorithm could also impact the odds. Unexpected events, such as a music video being removed from YouTube or a sudden surge in views due to a celebrity endorsement, would likely cause substantial price fluctuations in this market.
