TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
GAVIN:D x Violette Wautier - อย่ามากกว่าฉันก็พอ [IN MY ROOM SESSION]
Olivia Rodrigo - expectations (feat. Chappell Roan) (Official Music Video)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest view count on YouTube's global daily chart for a specific date. Participants can speculate on whether a particular artist's video will top the rankings, reflecting real-time viewer engagement trends across the platform.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its specified music video ranks #1 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos - Global chart for October 18, 2026. All markets share identical resolution criteria, differing only in the named video. None of the markets or associated products are endorsed by YouTube; references to YouTube are purely descriptive and do not imply affiliation or endorsement. The outcome hinges solely on YouTube's official chart data for the designated date.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting viral music video success is highly speculative. However, the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi often provides a different perspective than individual expert opinions. If analysts were to predict a clear frontrunner, we might expect to see a corresponding concentration of volume on that outcome within this market. Discrepancies between market odds and analyst predictions could signal opportunities for informed traders, though predicting the top daily music video remains a challenging endeavor.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in each music video's chance of ranking first. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood of each video topping the charts. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the ranking of music videos on YouTube’s Daily Top Music Videos Global chart dated October 18, 2026, will be used to determine the winning outcome. The video holding the number one position on that chart will be considered the resolved outcome of this market. Traders should monitor official YouTube charts as the resolution date approaches to stay informed.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok or Instagram could rapidly increase a song’s popularity, driving up its odds. Major artist announcements, music video releases from highly anticipated albums, or even controversies surrounding artists could also shift market sentiment. Pre-save numbers, early streaming data, and social media engagement metrics will be closely watched. Any news impacting the visibility or appeal of potential contenders could cause substantial movement in this market before Nov 1, 2026.
