TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
GAVIN:D x Violette Wautier - อย่ามากกว่าฉันก็พอ [IN MY ROOM SESSION]
Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest daily view count globally on YouTube for a specific date. Participants can speculate on whether a particular track will lead the platform's rankings that day, reflecting real-time audience engagement trends.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' exclusively if its specified music video occupies the top position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos - Global chart for October 16, 2026. No market resolves to 'Yes' if its designated video fails to achieve this singular #1 ranking. All secondary rules uniformly clarify that neither YouTube nor Kalshi endorses these markets, and any references to YouTube trademarks are purely descriptive, with no implied affiliation or endorsement from YouTube. The outcome hinges entirely on YouTube's official chart data for the stated date, with no alternative interpretations or external validations permitted.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or expert predictions, as traders weigh a broader range of factors and react quickly to new information. While analysts might focus on pre-release hype or artist popularity, the market incorporates real-time viewership data and viral trends. Discrepancies can highlight undervalued or overvalued videos, offering potential trading advantages for those monitoring both sources of information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a video’s likelihood of reaching the top spot. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic assessment of the most likely winner. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in each video’s potential performance.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top daily music video on YouTube for that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on official YouTube statistics, specifically the video with the highest number of views within a 24-hour period. The resolution process focuses on objectively identifying the most popular music video as reported by YouTube’s official data, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result for this market.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected viral trends, major artist endorsements, or controversies surrounding a particular video could all shift the odds. Official music video releases from highly anticipated artists are key catalysts, as is the performance of videos on related social media platforms like TikTok. Changes in YouTube’s algorithm or unexpected platform outages could also influence viewership numbers and, consequently, the market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on shifts in probability.
