TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
These markets track whether specific songs or phrases will rank among the top ten most popular tracks in the United States during a particular week, reflecting public listening trends and chart performance.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified song or phrase ranks within the top ten positions on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week ending October 31, 2026. The markets are based on Billboard's official chart rankings for that week, though Billboard has not endorsed these markets. References to Billboard or the Hot 100 are used descriptively and do not imply any affiliation or endorsement by Billboard. All markets share identical secondary rules clarifying the descriptive use of Billboard trademarks and the absence of official endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for the Billboard Hot 100. Music charts are notoriously difficult to predict with precision, and analyst opinions often vary widely. However, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a more dynamic and responsive assessment of a song's chances than static pre-release predictions. It's possible that this market will reflect a different assessment of chart performance than initial expert opinions, especially as songs gain or lose momentum.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a song will be in the Top 10. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts for a particular song, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability of chart success. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of October 31, 2026, is published and verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will determine which songs are in the Top 10 based on Billboard’s official rankings. The resolution will reflect the list as published by Billboard, and any subsequent revisions or corrections made by Billboard will be considered. The outcome is based on the official chart listing, not pre-chart predictions or estimates.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major song releases from popular artists, viral trends on social media platforms like TikTok, and significant media coverage could all shift sentiment and trading activity. Unexpected collaborations or remixes could also impact a song’s chart performance. Furthermore, changes in radio airplay or streaming numbers leading up to the chart week of October 31, 2026, will likely be reflected in the market prices. Any unforeseen events impacting artist popularity or song availability could also move this market.
