TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 11d:14h:07m
Will "Thriller" rank No. 1–2 on Billboard Hot 100?
$
Description
This event tracks the performance of Michael Jackson's 'Thriller' on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for a specific date, categorizing its success based on its ranking position. The outcome depends entirely on where the song lands within the chart's hierarchy that week.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Michael Jackson's 'Thriller' appears within specific ranking ranges on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated November 14, 2026. Each market defines a distinct range of positions from which a 'Yes' outcome results — spanning from the top positions (ranks 1-2) all the way down to the lower tier (ranks 75-100). Regardless of the range, all markets share the same secondary rule clarifying that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with Billboard, and all related trademarks remain the property of their respective owners. The resolution hinges solely on the song's exact chart position for that week.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts for music chart performance. Unlike polls or expert opinions, this market reflects a collective prediction made by individuals who have ‘skin in the game’ – they are financially incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of different outcomes. While analysts might consider factors like historical performance and current trends, the market incorporates a wider range of information and subjective assessments, potentially leading to a different view of the probabilities surrounding “Thriller”’s Billboard ranking.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different ranking ranges for “Thriller” on the Billboard Hot 100. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time indication of expectations. The current top market, as indicated by trader activity, is for “Thriller” to rank No. 41–50.
This market resolves around Nov 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official Billboard Hot 100 chart ranking for “Thriller” as published on November 14, 2026, will determine the winning outcome. The market will settle based on that official ranking, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor official Billboard announcements leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential factors influencing the chart’s composition.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 14, 2026. A resurgence in the song’s popularity due to a viral trend on social media, inclusion in a major film or television show, or a significant anniversary celebration could all drive increased streams and sales. Conversely, negative publicity or the emergence of competing songs could dampen its performance. Any news regarding the song's availability on streaming platforms or radio airplay will also be closely watched by traders, as these factors directly influence its chart position.
