TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks The Weeknd's potential to attract massive global viewership on YouTube over a specific week. It examines whether his content can achieve exceptionally high daily view counts, reflecting his popularity and the reach of his music videos or performances during that period.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds of global daily YouTube views for The Weeknd between September 28, 2026, and October 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific view count threshold, ranging from above 12 million to above 25 million views. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' The Weeknd must surpass its respective threshold at least once during the specified period. All markets use view counts reported from a New York IP address to ensure consistency, accessing data via YouTube Charts by searching for the artist and selecting 'Global' as the location. It is emphasized that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive, with no affiliation implied.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of factors than traditional forecasts, incorporating real-time information and diverse perspectives. If analysts predict a certain daily view count based on album sales and social media engagement, this market will show whether traders agree or disagree, and to what extent. Discrepancies can highlight overlooked variables or differing interpretations of available data, offering a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the Weeknd’s potential daily view counts. This dynamic pricing allows for a constantly updated assessment of expectations, influenced by news, social media trends, and other relevant information.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count The Weeknd receives across all major video platforms during the period of September 28, 2026, to October 4, 2026. The specific data source used to verify the view counts will be determined by Kalshi’s resolution process, ensuring a fair and transparent outcome for all participants in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements regarding The Weeknd’s new music releases, upcoming performances, or collaborations would likely impact trading activity. Unexpected viral trends on social media featuring The Weeknd’s music or persona could also drive increased interest and influence prices. Furthermore, any news related to competing artists or changes in platform algorithms affecting video visibility could shift trader sentiment and alter the odds in this market.
