TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks The Weeknd's performance on YouTube over a specific week, focusing on whether his daily view counts surpass various thresholds. It reflects the artist's popularity and engagement with global audiences during that period. The outcome depends on real-time view metrics observed within the defined timeframe.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for The Weeknd's global daily YouTube views from October 12 to October 18, 2026. Each threshold—ranging from above 12 million to above 25 million views—constitutes a separate market outcome. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' The Weeknd must exceed the respective threshold at least once during the week. All markets use view counts reported from a New York IP address to ensure consistency, accessing data via YouTube Charts by searching for the artist and selecting 'Global' as the location. Importantly, YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinions. Often, this market reflects a broader range of factors than traditional analysis, incorporating real-time information and diverse perspectives. While analysts may focus on pre-release hype or historical trends, this market can quickly adjust to unexpected news or changes in public sentiment. Discrepancies between the two can highlight overlooked variables or biases in either approach, offering a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes for The Weeknd’s viewership.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential daily view counts for The Weeknd. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective prediction. The current price indicates what traders believe is a fair value for the probability of a specific daily view count, influenced by factors like recent performance and promotional activities.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The highest daily view count for The Weeknd between October 12, 2026, and October 18, 2026, will be determined by publicly available data from official sources tracking views across major platforms. The market will settle based on this verified highest daily view count, providing a clear and objective outcome for all participants. This ensures a transparent and reliable resolution process.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements regarding The Weeknd’s new music releases, promotional appearances, or collaborations would likely impact his viewership. Unexpected viral moments or controversies could also drive substantial changes in the market. Furthermore, shifts in the broader entertainment landscape, such as the release of competing artists’ content, could influence predictions. Any news affecting his public profile or engagement could lead to adjustments in the perceived probability of different daily view counts for this market.
