TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 12:02 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes "All Critics" Tomatometer score for The Social Reckoning is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to "No" if no data is available by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes "All Critics" Tomatometer score for The Social Reckoning is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to "No" if no data is available by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many analyst forecasts for the Social Reckoning’s Rotten Tomatoes score. While some critics are predicting a generally positive reception, this market reflects a more cautious outlook, with a significant portion of traders anticipating a score below 60%. It’s important to note that analyst predictions are often based on pre-release screenings and subjective opinions, whereas this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their capital behind their beliefs. This divergence highlights the potential value of prediction markets as a complementary source of information.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing different Rotten Tomatoes score ranges, and the price of each share reflects the market’s current probability assessment of that outcome. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people believe a particular score range is likely, the price of shares in that range will increase, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic and responsive pricing system.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Rotten Tomatoes score for The Social Reckoning is publicly available and verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score, as reported by Rotten Tomatoes, will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders should monitor Rotten Tomatoes for the official release to understand the resolution. The resolution will be based on the percentage of positive reviews received by the film, as calculated by Rotten Tomatoes’ standard methodology.
Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Early reviews from prominent film critics will likely have a substantial impact, as will any significant media coverage or social media buzz surrounding the film. Positive or negative word-of-mouth, particularly from influential reviewers, could shift the market’s sentiment. Box office performance during the opening weekend could also be a factor, as strong ticket sales often correlate with positive critical reception. Any controversies or unexpected events related to the film’s release could also introduce volatility into this market.