TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether the Rotten Tomatoes score for the film *The Social Reckoning* will be above 60%. Currently, the probability of this occurring on Kalshi is 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by the Tomatometer score on Rotten Tomatoes, as defined in the resolution source. Keep an eye on critical reception as the resolution date of October 12, 2026 approaches, as that is when the Tomatometer score will be assessed to determine the outcome of this market.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple markets based on The Social Reckoning’s Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score as of October 12, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Each market has a specific numerical threshold (ranging from above 45 to above 90). If the film’s score exceeds the designated threshold for a given market, that market resolves to "Yes"; otherwise, it resolves to "No". All markets share identical secondary rules: the score is finalized on the Monday following the film’s wide release, and the terms "Fresh!" and "Certified Fresh!" are illustrative and do not affect resolution logic. Importantly, Rotten Tomatoes has not endorsed these markets, and any references to the platform are purely descriptive, with no implied affiliation or endorsement. The structure allows participants to speculate on varying degrees of critical success, from moderate approval to exceptional acclaim.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many film critics are offering early predictions about the Social Reckoning’s reception, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouth is. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or simply a more nuanced understanding of public sentiment. It's interesting to observe how this market evolves as more information becomes available and compare its trajectory to the evolving consensus among professional reviewers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different Rotten Tomatoes score ranges for the Social Reckoning. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the film's potential success with critics. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final Rotten Tomatoes score for the Social Reckoning is publicly available and verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the percentage of positive reviews the film receives, as reported by Rotten Tomatoes. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their purchased contracts align with the final, verified score. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Early reviews from prominent critics, particularly those with a strong track record, will likely cause price fluctuations. Any controversies surrounding the film's production or content could also shift sentiment. Furthermore, the release of trailers and promotional materials, and the resulting public reaction, could influence trading activity. Finally, any significant news related to the cast or director might move this market as traders adjust their expectations leading up to Oct 12, 2026.
