TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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"The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office
polymarket

How will "The Social Reckoning" open?

Volume:
$86,420

5-7m

 - Polymarket

5-7m - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 6:39 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

5-7m

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
—
N/A
$31,136
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<5m

View
0%
25%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35,843
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

7-9m

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,384
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

9-11m

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,876
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

13m+

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,589
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11-13m

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,592
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to how much "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 9 - 11) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to how much "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 9 - 11) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Social Reckoning box office tracks the probabilities associated with different opening weekend revenue ranges. You can view the current odds for each outcome, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $14,027, and the total volume traded to date, which is $86,420. This allows users to gauge market interest and sentiment regarding the film’s potential performance.

Currently, prediction market participants are indicating a strong likelihood that the opening weekend box office for The Social Reckoning will fall within a specific range. This contrasts with some pre-release analyst predictions, which showed a wider distribution of possible outcomes. While some analysts predicted a lower opening, this market suggests a more optimistic view. It’s important to note that prediction markets represent the collective wisdom of traders willing to put their capital at risk, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional forecasting methods.

This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official opening weekend box office numbers for The Social Reckoning are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on reported figures from a widely recognized source for box office data. The market will settle to the outcome that corresponds to the actual reported opening weekend revenue range. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the verified results.

Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market leading up to resolution. Positive or negative critical reviews released closer to the premiere date could significantly shift sentiment. Unexpected marketing pushes or controversies surrounding the film could also impact predictions. Furthermore, pre-sale ticket numbers, if publicly released, would provide valuable insight into potential opening weekend performance and likely cause movement in this market. Any major news related to the film’s cast or distribution could also play a role.