TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the streaming performance of a specific song over a defined week. It evaluates whether the song achieves various streaming milestones, providing insight into its popularity and audience engagement during that period. The outcomes reflect different levels of success based on streaming counts reported by an independent metrics provider.
Kalshi
The event determines if the song "The Girl Of Your Dreams" by Ashe achieves specified streaming thresholds within the U.S. during the week of October 16–22, 2026. All markets resolve based on data reported by Luminate’s API at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday following the tracking week. Each market corresponds to a distinct streaming milestone (e.g., 1M, 2M, up to 20M streams). If the reported streams exceed the threshold for a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Luminate Data, LLC serves as the neutral metrics provider and does not endorse or influence market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of perspectives than traditional forecasts, incorporating information from numerous participants. While analysts may focus on specific factors like marketing spend or pre-release buzz, the market aggregates diverse viewpoints, potentially identifying overlooked signals. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of uncertainty or disagreement, offering a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes for the Girl Of Your Dreams streams. It’s a valuable exercise to see where the crowd diverges from established expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of streams the Girl Of Your Dreams receives in its first week. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, driven by new information and changing sentiment. Essentially, traders are expressing their beliefs about the show’s potential success, and these beliefs are translated into real-time price movements. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official stream counts for the first week of the Girl Of Your Dreams are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of streams accumulated across all major streaming platforms during that initial period. The specific data source used for verification will be determined by Kalshi’s resolution process, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen contracts align with the verified stream count, reflecting the collective wisdom of the market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 25, 2026. Positive or negative reviews from prominent critics could heavily influence expectations, as could viral marketing campaigns or unexpected social media buzz. Any news regarding distribution deals or platform exclusives could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, the release of trailers or promotional materials that generate significant interest – or lack thereof – could shift sentiment. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the show’s potential viewership will likely cause fluctuations in the price of contracts for the Girl Of Your Dreams streams.
