TOTAL VOLUME:
$116.7b
24H VOL:
$103,238,539
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,173,199,778
338,330
Markets across
33,339
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,209
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Above 2.5%
- Kalshi
Above 2.5% - Kalshi
45%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
No volume data
Aug 26
Aug 26
Aug 26
Aug 26
Aug 27
Vol.
$0.0
·
Resolves Aug 31, 2026
Time left: 04d:02h:11m
$
This event tracks Tencent's performance in the AI model author market share for a specific week. It measures whether Tencent's share exceeds various percentage thresholds, reflecting its influence and adoption in the development community during that period. The resolution depends on publicly available data at a set time after the week ends.
All markets resolve based on Tencent’s market share percentage on OpenRouter Market Share by model author for the week of August 24, 2026, measured at 10:00 AM ET on the Monday following the week in question. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold (1.5%, 2.0%, 2.5%, 3.0%, 3.5%, or 4.0%). If Tencent’s share exceeds the respective threshold, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with OpenRouter or any related entities, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Currently, this market reflects a different perspective than many analyst forecasts. While some experts predict steady growth for Tencent, the prediction market odds suggest a more nuanced outlook. Traders are factoring in a wider range of variables, including recent product launches and regulatory developments, which may not be fully captured in traditional analyst reports.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit bids and asks. The current top outcome has a chance of 36.0%, determined by the collective bets of all participants. Volume of $4,343 indicates the level of interest and liquidity in the market.
This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on officially released market share data for the week in question, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process for all participants.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution. Major product announcements, changes in consumer behavior due to new competitors, or regulatory updates impacting Tencent’s services may all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, quarterly earnings reports or significant market expansions could cause rapid movements in the odds as participants reassess their positions.