TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Taipei Mayor Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Taipei Mayor election?

Total volume:
$1,266,183
Volume 24h:
$67,452
56%
Liquidity:
$247,549
11%
Open interest:
$149,194
3%

Chiang Wan-an

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 26, 2027

Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

64%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 64¢ buys you 156 shares | Odds: 64% Total Payout: $156 | Net Profit: $56 Multiplier: 1.56x | ROI: 56% High Projected APY: 3,633% 45 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Chiang Wan-an

Trade
64%
2%
Yes 64¢No 37¢
1¢
$85,665
$412,378
5%
44%
N/A
1mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Chiang Wan-an

Trade
62%
2%
Yes 62¢No 40¢
2¢
N/A
$78,293
9%
90%
$50,978
4mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
63.3%
Yes 63¢No 38.5¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Shen Bo-yang

Trade
38%
1%
Yes 39¢No 62¢
1¢
N/A
$103,537
0.74%
106%
$96,590
4mo 2w
active
polymarket

Puma Shen

Trade
37%
3%
Yes 37¢No 64¢
1¢
$98,646
$534,309
5%
39%
N/A
1mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Hsiao Wen-kan

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$175
0%
0%
$175
4mo 2w
active
kalshi

Tang Hsin-min

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$175
0%
0%
$175
4mo 2w
active
kalshi

Lin Chih-cheng

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$175
0%
0%
$175
4mo 2w
active
kalshi

Kuo Hsi

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,101
0%
529%
$1,101
4mo 2w
active
polymarket

Kuo Hsi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$63,238
$136,041
10%
4,256%
N/A
1mo 2w 1d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the next Taipei Mayoral election, forecasting which candidate will win. Currently, Polymarket and Kalshi, aggregated by PredictionHero, indicate a 65.5% probability that Chiang Wan-an will win. The resolution source for this market is the Taiwanese Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/). The markets will resolve based on the official results reported by the Commission following the election. Keep an eye on candidate announcements and polling data leading up to the election window, with resolution expected around February 26, 2027, representing the date of the election.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve based on the official results of the Taipei Mayoral election, with both platforms referencing the same election.Primary resolution logic: Taiwanese Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the candidate who wins the Taipei Mayoral election.
  • Resolution is based on the official results reported by the Taiwanese Central Election Commission.
  • Individual candidate markets resolve to 'Yes' if the candidate wins, and 'No' otherwise.
  • A market for 'another candidate' resolves to 'Yes' if a candidate not listed wins.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Clear Winner: If the election result is unclear or no candidate is elected by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (Polymarket only), the market will resolve to 'Other'.
  • Interim Mayor: Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
Timing: The market will resolve after the official results of the 2026 Taipei Mayoral election are announced by the Taiwanese Central Election Commission, no later than June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (Polymarket).Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Kalshi

If Chiang Wan-an wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Shen Bo-yang wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kuo Hsi wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hsiao Wen-kan wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tang Hsin-min wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lin Chih-cheng wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the aggregate prediction probabilities for the Taipei mayoral election. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $1,266,183, with $67,382 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of who is most likely to win, synthesized from multiple independent prediction markets. The dashboard shows how traders are pricing in various factors influencing the outcome of the election, offering a dynamic assessment beyond traditional polling data. This allows for a broader understanding of potential results for the Taipei mayoral election.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences at a single point in time, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to *risk* on a particular outcome. This can lead to prediction markets being more accurate, especially as the election nears and more information becomes available. While polls can be useful for understanding public sentiment, the aggregated wisdom of the crowd in this market often incorporates a wider range of factors, including strategic considerations and hidden information. It’s a valuable complement to traditional election analysis.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity, which can lead to differing price discovery. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? at 63.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? at 62.0%. Differences in trading fees, market maker activity, and even the time of day can contribute to these discrepancies. These variations highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the continuous process of price refinement.

This market resolves around Feb 26, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results announced by the relevant electoral authorities in Taipei. The market will determine the winner of the Taipei mayoral election based on these official results, providing a clear and objective outcome. Traders should monitor news sources for the official announcement to understand when the market will settle and how the outcome is determined.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant shifts in public opinion revealed by late-stage polling, and unexpected campaign events could all cause price fluctuations. Any controversies or scandals involving the candidates would likely move the market as well. Economic news related to Taipei or Taiwan could also play a role, as voters may consider economic conditions when making their decisions. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market leading up to Feb 26, 2027.