TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which video game achieves the highest sales rank on Steam during a specific week in 2026. Participants can speculate on whether particular titles will lead in consumer purchasing activity over that period.
Kalshi
The event determines the weekly top-selling game on Steam's USA platform for the specified dates by revenue. Each market corresponds to a different video game title, with resolution contingent upon that title securing the #1 position on Steam's published Top 100 products by revenue list for the week of October 20 to October 27, 2026. Only one market will resolve to 'Yes'—the one matching the actual top-ranked game—while all others resolve to 'No.' The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official ties to Steam, and all referenced trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. While analysts often provide pre-event predictions based on game releases, marketing campaigns, and player base size, this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of a diverse group of traders. Often, the market odds adjust rapidly to new information, potentially outperforming static analyst predictions. Currently, the market’s implied probability differs from many pre-release forecasts, suggesting traders may have unique insights into the potential performance of upcoming games.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a particular game will be the top seller. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and order book provide transparency into the level of demand and supply for each outcome, allowing traders to assess the potential for price movements and make informed decisions based on their own research and analysis.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official Steam weekly top-selling charts released by Valve. The game that holds the number one position on the 'Top 100' list, ranked by revenue, will be considered the winner. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts settled based on whether their predicted outcome matches the verified results from Steam’s official data.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Major game releases, especially from popular franchises, are key catalysts. Unexpected positive or negative reviews, significant marketing pushes, or even popular streamer endorsements can all influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any news regarding delays or technical issues with a highly anticipated game could lead to rapid shifts in the odds. Monitoring these factors, alongside Steam player counts and social media buzz, is crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations in this market.
