TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which video game achieves the highest sales rank on Steam during a specific week in 2026. Participants speculate on whether particular titles will claim the top position based on consumer purchasing trends.
Kalshi
The event determines the weekly top-selling game on Steam's USA revenue list for the period Oct 6 - Oct 13, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific game, resolving to Yes if that game occupies the #1 position on the specified list. All markets operate under identical temporal parameters and share the same secondary disclaimer regarding Kalshi's lack of official affiliation with Steam. The resolution hinges solely on Steam's published weekly sales rankings, with no additional performance metrics or regional variations affecting outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional gaming analysts, potentially incorporating a wider range of factors and real-time player behavior. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies or biases, with the market reflecting the 'wisdom of the crowd' and analysts relying on more focused research. It’s common to see the market adjust rapidly to news and events, sometimes outpacing analyst revisions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the likelihood of each game topping the Steam charts. Prices are determined by supply and demand; as more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregate sentiment of all participants trading on Kalshi, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the most likely top seller.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the weekly Steam top seller charts are officially released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The game listed as the highest-grossing title on Steam for the relevant week will determine the winning outcome. The official Steam sales data serves as the basis for determining the resolution, ensuring a transparent and objective result. Traders should monitor official Steam announcements as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Major game releases, especially from popular franchises, are key catalysts. Positive or negative reviews and initial player reception can quickly shift sentiment. Unexpected discounts or promotional offers on Steam can also influence sales figures. Announcements regarding updates, DLC, or esports events for specific games could also drive increased interest and sales. Finally, any news regarding delays or controversies surrounding a highly anticipated title could dramatically alter the odds in this market.
