TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?
kalshi
polymarket

SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?

Total volume:
$128,628
Volume 24h:
$2,722
279%
Liquidity:
$2,436
72%
Open interest:
$46,513
3%

June 30, 2027

 - Polymarket

June 30, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jul 1, 2027

Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by June 30, 2027?

93%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 92.9¢ buys you 108 shares | Odds: 93% Total Payout: $108 | Net Profit: $8 Multiplier: 1.08x | ROI: 8% | APY: 11% 258 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

June 30, 2027

Trade
93%
Yes 92.9¢No 19.9¢
12.8¢
$1,525
$629
0%
2%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before 2027

Trade
32%
4%
Yes 27¢No 76¢
3¢
N/A
$41,919
6%
12%
$12,698
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

December 31, 2026

Trade
25%
Yes 29¢No 79¢
8¢
$910
$8,580
0%
5%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
30.8%
Yes 28¢No 77.5¢
Avg: 5.5¢Max: 8¢
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,528
N/A
N/A
$26,347
2mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Before Aug 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,177
N/A
N/A
$7,469
2mo 2w 4d
No
polymarket

August 31, 2026

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,794
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This group forecasts whether SpaceX's Starship will successfully launch from a launch pad in Florida by various dates. Successful launch is defined as leaving the ground, and any subsequent anomaly will not affect resolution. The resolution will be based on official SpaceX information and corroborated by credible reporting.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms have differing deadlines for the Starship launch, creating a divergence in resolution timing.Hero tip: Focus on the specific deadline of each market when making trading decisions. Earlier deadlines represent a higher bar for resolution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'Yes' if Starship launches from Florida by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, 'No'.
  • Kalshi: Offers markets resolving 'Yes' if Starship launches from Florida before August 1, 2026, October 1, 2026, or January 1, 2027. Otherwise, 'No'.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

If the SpaceX Starship successfully launches from a launch pad in Florida by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any renaming of the Starship vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kalshi

If the SpaceX Starship has launched from Florida before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the SpaceX Starship has launched from Florida before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the SpaceX Starship has launched from Florida before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on modeling and expert opinion, this market reflects the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of a Starship launch. This 'wisdom of the crowd' effect can sometimes lead to more accurate predictions, especially in complex events with many variables. The market’s price discovery process incorporates a wide range of information and potential scenarios, potentially identifying overlooked factors not captured in conventional analyses.

Prices for the same outcome can vary between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structures, all of which can influence price formation. Furthermore, differing levels of liquidity and trading volume on each platform can create temporary discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by June 30, 2027? at 93.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida this year? at 32.0%, demonstrating these differing viewpoints.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether SpaceX successfully launches Starship from a launchpad in Florida before the specified date. The market will reflect whether the launch occurred, regardless of the mission’s ultimate success or failure beyond the initial launch phase. The outcome will be determined by publicly available information and widely accepted verification of the launch event.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any announcements from SpaceX regarding launch delays, technical issues, or successful testing milestones would likely cause price fluctuations. Positive news about regulatory approvals or infrastructure readiness could increase confidence and drive prices higher. Conversely, reports of significant setbacks or unforeseen challenges could lower prices. Major events impacting the broader space industry or SpaceX’s financial situation could also influence trading activity and shift sentiment in this market.