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Space Exploration Technologies’s Market Cap end of August 2026?
Financials
kalshi
p

Space Exploration Technologies’s Market Cap end of August 2026?

Total volume:
$27,963
Volume 24h:
$1,912
1,429%
Liquidity:
$3,229
57%
Open interest:
$16,341
0.66%

4.43% or above

 - Kalshi

4.43% or above - Kalshi

100%

+1%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

97%97.5%98%98.5%99%99.5%

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Vol.

$25.0

·

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Time left: 05d:18h:35m

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Description

This event group focuses on two distinct financial metrics for Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) at the end of August 2026: the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury and the company's market capitalization. The first set of markets on Kalshi resolves based on Treasury yield thresholds, while the Polymarket markets resolve based on specific market cap brackets for SpaceX.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets resolve on entirely different underlying assets (Treasury yields vs. corporate market cap) with no correlation between them.Hero tip: Traders should verify which asset they are betting on, as there is no correlation between Treasury yields and SpaceX's market capitalization. Do not confuse these markets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves if the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above specified thresholds on Aug 31, 2026. Key quote: "If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.88% on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
  • Polymarket: Resolves based on SpaceX’s market capitalization brackets at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of August 2026. Key quote: "This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the par yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury as of August 31, 2026, with each market having a unique threshold above which it resolves to Yes. Thresholds range incrementally from 4.60% to 4.88%, meaning a higher threshold market requires a correspondingly higher yield to settle positively. Expiration occurs at the sooner of two times: either 7:00 PM ET on the first business day following the official data release for August 31, 2026, or one week after August 31, 2026. All markets share this unified expiration framework, ensuring consistent timing across differing yield level assessments.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the SpaceX market cap market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing how traders across platforms price the likelihood of different outcomes. It displays current odds, volume of $25,891, and 24-hour volume of $540, letting you see consensus and divergence in real time. This view helps you monitor where Polymarket and Kalshi stand relative to each other, useful for spotting shifts before Aug 31, 2026.

On Polymarket, traders currently price this market at 69.0%, reflecting collective bets on SpaceX’s valuation range by Aug 31, 2026. Analyst forecasts often differ, sometimes leaning more conservative or aggressive based on earnings, contracts, or macro trends. Comparing these views lets you weigh crowd sentiment against institutional research, helping you spot potential mispricings or emerging consensus as new data emerges.

Differences in user bases, liquidity, and fee structures can cause Polymarket and Kalshi to price this market differently. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more retail traders reacting quickly to news, while the other could reflect slower institutional positioning. The gap between 69.0% and 99.0% may also widen if trading volume stays thin on either venue, making price swings more common.

Key events like SpaceX earnings reports, new government contracts, stock offerings, or macro shifts in tech valuation trends can sharply move this market. Major news around rocket test results, regulatory approvals, or competition updates may also shift trader sentiment, especially if they change expectations for revenue or growth before Aug 31, 2026.