TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.7b

24H VOL:

$98,950,588

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,171,226,487

333,737

Markets across

33,115

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,155

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Science and Technology
Entertainment
Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
Financials
polymarket
predict

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Jan 20, 2026, 8:29 AM EST - Dec 30, 2026, 7:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$792,372
Volume 24h:
$3
34%
Liquidity:
$645,584
5%
Open interest:
$6,137N/A

↑ 4.5%

 - Predict

↑ 4.5% - Predict

99.6%

+94.6%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 19

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 26

Aug 26

Vol.

$5.0

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99.6¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.4% | APY: 1% Low liquidity 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 25 of 29

Description

This event group tracks whether the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate will reach specific thresholds (upper and lower bounds) by December 31, 2026. The Polymarket subset adds a conditional layer: whether specific individuals will be confirmed as Fed Chair AND whether rates will simultaneously hit or avoid the 2.5% lower bound threshold in 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Predict markets isolate Fed rate threshold achievement as the sole resolution variable. Polymarket markets compound Fed Chair confirmation (a political/Senate outcome) with rate thresholds, creating distinct market structures and outcome spaces.Hero tip: Treat Predict and Polymarket as separate markets with different risk profiles. Predict markets depend only on Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. Polymarket markets depend on both Senate confirmation (political risk) and Fed policy. The Polymarket "Other" outcome is a catch-all for unlisted chairs or timing mismatches—monitor Senate nomination activity closely. Predict markets offer cleaner rate-only exposure; Polymarket offers political-monetary compound exposure.

Critical divergence points:

  • Predict: Pure rate-threshold markets. Resolution is binary (Yes/No) based solely on whether the Fed's upper or lower bound reaches a specified level by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. No political or personnel conditions. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
  • Polymarket: Compound markets linking Fed Chair confirmation (Senate vote) with rate thresholds. Resolution is ternary (Yes/No/Other) and requires BOTH conditions to be met. Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed's lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower... This market will resolve to Other if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe. This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met. The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026? The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.

Predict

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data across Polymarket and Predict to track consensus expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates under different Fed Chair scenarios. The event has generated $790,115 in total trading volume, reflecting sustained market interest in monetary policy outcomes. By monitoring odds across multiple platforms, traders and analysts can identify which rate-and-chair combinations the market views as most likely, spot divergences between venues, and gauge conviction levels as new economic data and leadership developments emerge through Dec 31, 2026.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst consensus because markets price in real-time sentiment, tail risks, and forward-looking uncertainty that surveys may lag. For this event, Polymarket and Predict participants are betting on both Fed Chair confirmation and specific rate thresholds, creating a more granular view than typical economist surveys. Market prices reflect asymmetric information and incentivized accuracy, though they can overshoot or undershoot consensus during periods of high volatility or when new policy signals emerge.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform differences in liquidity, user base composition, and market-making activity can create pricing gaps. Polymarket currently shows 94.0% on its top outcome, while Predict reflects 99.6%, a spread of 5.6 percentage points. These gaps may persist due to different fee structures, trading mechanics, or regional trader preferences. Arbitrage opportunities and information asymmetries between venues can also drive temporary misalignment until traders exploit the difference.

This market resolves on Dec 31, 2026. Resolution hinges on two key variables: confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee and the actual lower bound of the Federal Reserve's policy rate at that time. Outcomes are determined by official Federal Reserve announcements and Senate confirmation votes. Traders should monitor FOMC meeting schedules, economic data releases, and legislative developments to anticipate how these factors may shift market odds before the resolution date.

Major catalysts include Senate confirmation hearings and votes on Fed Chair nominees, monthly employment and inflation reports, Federal Reserve policy announcements, and macroeconomic surprises. Geopolitical shocks, financial stability concerns, or shifts in inflation expectations can rapidly reprrice rate expectations. Additionally, any public statements from sitting or prospective Fed officials regarding monetary policy stance will influence market pricing. Traders should track the economic calendar and legislative calendar closely for timing and magnitude of potential moves.