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Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
Financials
polymarket
predict

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair? Odds & Prediction Markets

Jan 20, 2026, 8:29 AM EST - Dec 30, 2026, 7:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$720,095
Volume 24h:
$350
51%
Liquidity:
$160,693
5%
Open interest:
$6,232N/A
PredictionHero
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% 93%
polymarket
↑ 5.5% 55%
predict
↓ 1.0% 50%
predict
Feb 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026020406080100

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

93%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 94¢ buys you 106 shares | Odds: 93% Total Payout: $106 | Net Profit: $6 Multiplier: 1.06x | ROI: 6% | APY: 14% 168 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
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Intro

This market tracks whether Kevin Warsh will be confirmed as the next Federal Reserve Chair and whether the Fed's target federal funds rate lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower by the end of 2026. Aggregating data from Polymarket and Predict, the consensus probability for this combined outcome stands at 93.0%. Resolution will be determined by official U.S. Senate confirmation records and the Federal Reserve's official monetary policy announcements. Watch for Senate confirmation votes on the Fed Chair nomination and FOMC meeting decisions throughout 2026, with the resolution window closing on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Predict markets isolate Fed rate threshold achievement as the sole resolution variable. Polymarket markets compound Fed Chair confirmation (a political/Senate outcome) with rate thresholds, creating distinct market structures and outcome spaces.Hero tip: Treat Predict and Polymarket as separate markets with different risk profiles. Predict markets depend only on Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. Polymarket markets depend on both Senate confirmation (political risk) and Fed policy. The Polymarket "Other" outcome is a catch-all for unlisted chairs or timing mismatches—monitor Senate nomination activity closely. Predict markets offer cleaner rate-only exposure; Polymarket offers political-monetary compound exposure.

Critical divergence points:

  • Predict: Pure rate-threshold markets. Resolution is binary (Yes/No) based solely on whether the Fed's upper or lower bound reaches a specified level by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. No political or personnel conditions. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
  • Polymarket: Compound markets linking Fed Chair confirmation (Senate vote) with rate thresholds. Resolution is ternary (Yes/No/Other) and requires BOTH conditions to be met. Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed's lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower... This market will resolve to Other if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe. This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met. The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026? The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.

Predict

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data across Polymarket and Predict to track consensus expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates under different Fed Chair scenarios. The event has generated $720,095 in total trading volume, reflecting sustained market interest in monetary policy outcomes. By monitoring odds across multiple platforms, traders and analysts can identify which rate-and-chair combinations the market views as most likely, spot divergences between venues, and gauge conviction levels as new economic data and leadership developments emerge through Dec 31, 2026.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst consensus because markets price in real-time sentiment, tail risks, and forward-looking uncertainty that surveys may lag. For this event, Polymarket and Predict participants are betting on both Fed Chair confirmation and specific rate thresholds, creating a more granular view than typical economist surveys. Market prices reflect asymmetric information and incentivized accuracy, though they can overshoot or undershoot consensus during periods of high volatility or when new policy signals emerge.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform differences in liquidity, user base composition, and market-making activity can create pricing gaps. Polymarket currently shows 93.0% on its top outcome, while Predict reflects 55.0%, a spread of 38.0 percentage points. These gaps may persist due to different fee structures, trading mechanics, or regional trader preferences. Arbitrage opportunities and information asymmetries between venues can also drive temporary misalignment until traders exploit the difference.

This market resolves on Dec 31, 2026. Resolution hinges on two key variables: confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee and the actual lower bound of the Federal Reserve's policy rate at that time. Outcomes are determined by official Federal Reserve announcements and Senate confirmation votes. Traders should monitor FOMC meeting schedules, economic data releases, and legislative developments to anticipate how these factors may shift market odds before the resolution date.

Major catalysts include Senate confirmation hearings and votes on Fed Chair nominees, monthly employment and inflation reports, Federal Reserve policy announcements, and macroeconomic surprises. Geopolitical shocks, financial stability concerns, or shifts in inflation expectations can rapidly reprrice rate expectations. Additionally, any public statements from sitting or prospective Fed officials regarding monetary policy stance will influence market pricing. Traders should track the economic calendar and legislative calendar closely for timing and magnitude of potential moves.

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