TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The track "She’s The Best" by Troye Sivan will be monitored for its streaming performance in the U.S. during the first week of October 2026. The outcome depends on whether the song achieves certain streaming thresholds as reported by Luminate’s API.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on U.S. streaming data for the song "She’s The Best" by Troye Sivan during the tracking week of October 09, 2026, to October 15, 2026. Luminate’s API will report the official stream count at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. Each market has a specific streaming threshold (ranging from 50K to 10M streams); if the reported streams meet or exceed the threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. Luminate Data, LLC acts as a neutral metrics provider and does not influence market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially identifying outcomes that individual analysts might overlook. While analysts may offer specific predictions based on their expertise, the market aggregates a wider range of perspectives, incorporating diverse information and biases. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of uncertainty or disagreement regarding the show's potential success.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing different streaming outcomes for the first week. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the show's release date approaches. The more traders believe an outcome will occur, the higher the contract price will climb, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official streaming numbers for the first week of 'She’s The Best' are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the officially reported streaming data, reflecting the total viewership achieved during that initial period. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome, based on publicly available information and not on subjective interpretations.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Early reviews and critical reception of 'She’s The Best' will likely have a substantial impact, as positive buzz could drive increased viewership. Marketing campaigns and promotional activities leading up to the release could also influence expectations. Unexpected news surrounding the cast or production could also shift sentiment. Any indication of pre-release interest, such as trailer views or social media engagement, will be closely watched by traders.
