TOTAL VOLUME:
$148.6b
24H VOL:
$137,183,717
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,817,625,700
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,798,208,113
456,907
Markets across
34,819
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,792
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
San Francisco wins by over 1.5 points
- Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 1.5 points - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 25, 2026
Time left: 10h:24m:02s
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This market asks whether San Francisco will win their game against Atlanta by more than 1.5 points. Currently, the probability of San Francisco winning by over 1.5 points on Kalshi is 56.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the San Francisco vs Atlanta Pro Football game, specifically if San Francisco wins by more than 16.5 points, as determined by the final score. Keep a close watch on the game itself, scheduled for October 25, 2026, as the final result will determine the market’s resolution.
The markets resolve based on the point differential from the San Francisco vs Atlanta Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. If San Francisco wins by exceeding specific point margins—from just over 1.5 points up to more than 20.5 points—the corresponding 'San Francisco wins by over X points' markets resolve to Yes. Similarly, if Atlanta wins by surpassing thresholds from just over 1.5 points to more than 14.5 points, the relevant 'Atlanta wins by over X points' markets resolve to Yes. All markets are independent, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately; a single outcome can trigger multiple markets to resolve as Yes if the score differential meets or exceeds those thresholds. No affiliation or endorsement by the governing league or its trademarks is implied.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that the market believes the sportsbook is mispricing the event. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be accurate. It's valuable to compare them as part of your overall analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the San Francisco vs Atlanta spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts indicating a certain spread, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities as the event approaches. The current price represents the market's collective assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the San Francisco vs Atlanta game, as reported by a major sports data provider, will determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official result of the game, and any adjustments made due to penalties or other in-game events will be factored into the final spread. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the San Francisco or Atlanta teams would likely cause price movement. Changes in coaching strategies, weather forecasts for the game day, or even significant shifts in public sentiment could also impact the market. Unexpected news about team morale or internal conflicts could also play a role. As the game approaches, any information that alters the perceived probability of either team winning – or winning by a specific margin – will likely be reflected in the price of contracts.