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405,032

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30,543

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,690

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will win San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals?

Volume:
$1,852,041

Kansas City

 - Kalshi

Kansas City - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 19, 2026

Closed: Jul 18, 6:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Kansas City

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$574,045
N/A
N/A
$376,248
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,975
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

NRFI

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$735
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$71
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -3.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$431
$3,220
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$355,702
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

San Diego

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$755,410
N/A
N/A
$435,849
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$135,740
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,380
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 7.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,106
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 11.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,919
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$685
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$313
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Extra Innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$255
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$81
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -5.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 26

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of an MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Kansas City Royals, including the spread and game winner. Across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict, the consensus probability for Kansas City Royals at -4.5 spread stands at 100.0%. Resolution will be determined by official MLB statistics published on mlb.com. Watch for the game scheduled on July 18, 2026 at 4:10 PM ET to settle all related market positions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's game winner market contains a logical contradiction: it specifies that both San Diego winning AND Kansas City winning resolve to 'Yes', which is impossible in a binary Yes/No market structure. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable and creates settlement risk.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi game winner market. It is logically malformed. Use Polymarket or Predict for game winner bets, which correctly specify mutually exclusive outcomes. The Polymarket first-inning run market is sound and can be safely traded.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Game winner resolves to either 'San Diego Padres' or 'Kansas City Royals' as mutually exclusive outcomes. Cancellation/tie/no makeup game resolves 50-50. First-inning run market resolves to 'Yes' if any run scores in inning 1, 'No' otherwise. Source: MLB.com official statistics within 24 hours or credible consensus.
  • Predict: Identical to Polymarket: game winner is mutually exclusive (Padres XOR Royals), with 50-50 on cancellation/tie. Same 24-hour MLB.com source requirement and credible consensus fallback.
  • Kalshi: CRITICAL FLAW: Market states 'If San Diego wins...resolves to Yes' AND 'If Kansas City wins...resolves to Yes'. This violates binary logic—both outcomes cannot map to the same resolution state. No tie/cancellation clause provided. Market is logically unresolvable.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Kansas City Royals, scheduled for July 18 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

This event covers the San Diego vs Kansas City professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 18, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT. Resolution is determined by the final outcome of the game: San Diego victory resolves to Yes for the San Diego market, while Kansas City victory resolves to Yes for the Kansas City market. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled more than two days away, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with applicable rules.

Predict

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Kansas City Royals, scheduled for July 18 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market activity across Polymarket and Predict for the Padres vs. Royals matchup, tracking real-time odds on various game outcomes. Traders on both platforms are currently pricing different aspects of the contest, from run-scoring scenarios to final results. The combined volume of $1,852,041 reflects active interest in this matchup across venues. By monitoring both platforms side by side, you can spot consensus views and identify where the markets diverge, giving you a fuller picture of how professional predictors are positioning themselves ahead of game time.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market's odds reflect what thousands of independent traders believe will happen, often incorporating real-time information faster than traditional sportsbooks update their lines. Over time, prediction market prices tend to be highly accurate because traders risk real capital. Comparing this market's odds to your preferred sportsbook can reveal value opportunities or confirm consensus expectations.

Key catalysts include lineup announcements, starting pitcher confirmations, and injury updates for either team. Weather conditions at game time can significantly impact run-scoring expectations and overall game dynamics. Recent team performance, head-to-head records, and bullpen availability are also closely watched. Breaking news about player availability or unexpected roster changes often triggers sharp price moves as traders reassess probabilities. Trading volume typically spikes in the hours before first pitch as casual bettors enter and professionals fine-tune their positions. Monitoring these signals helps you time your trades and stay ahead of market repricing.