TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 27, 8:50 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a professional baseball game between two teams, focusing on the margin of victory. It reflects how fans and analysts predict the performance difference between the competing teams in a scheduled match. The resolution depends entirely on the final score of the game.
The event consists of four distinct outcome markets all tied to the same baseball game between the Samsung Lions and Kiwoom Heroes, scheduled for August 27, 2026. Each market resolves based on whether a specific team wins by a designated run margin: the Kiwoom Heroes by over 2.5 runs, the Kiwoom Heroes by over 1.5 runs, the Samsung Lions by over 1.5 runs, or the Samsung Lions by over 2.5 runs. All markets share the same underlying game and time, with resolution contingent solely on the final score meeting the specified run-difference thresholds for each respective outcome. Secondary rules clarify that the platform hosting these markets has no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more nuanced, crowd-sourced view of team performance and conditions compared to traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks may set prices based on broader public betting trends and sharp money, prediction markets let participants directly bet on specific run-differential outcomes, sometimes revealing tighter spreads or sharper adjustments based on real-time data and insider sentiment.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set prices through a continuous order book where each outcome’s probability is determined by supply and demand. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate wisdom of participants betting on run differentials, with liquidity and volume of $18,999 shaping how tightly prices move in response to new information or shifts in sentiment.
This market resolves around Aug 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final run difference between the two teams will settle the market, and the result is checked against official league data to ensure accuracy before final settlement on Kalshi.