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Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on August 3?
Financials
polymarket
kalshi

Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on August 3?

Total volume:
$29,854
Volume 24h:
$15
128%
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
$18,468
0.01%

At least $3,050

 - Kalshi

At least $3,050 - Kalshi

100%

+0%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

98%98.5%99%99.5%

Aug 17

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Vol.

$1.0

·

Resolves Sep 1, 2026

Time left: 08d:00h:48m

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Description

This event group tracks the performance of the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) around August 3, 2026. One market determines if the index is higher or lower on that specific date compared to the prior trading day, while the other set of markets resolves based on whether the index meets or exceeds various threshold values at any point during the month following August 3.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in measurement scope and resolution criteria between platformsHero tip: Treat these as separate bets — Polymarket measures a single-day price movement while Kalshi measures monthly threshold breaches. Do not assume correlation between outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Up if RUT closing price on August 3, 2026 > prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal. Uses WSJ closing prices as source.
  • Kalshi: Each market resolves to Yes if RUT reaches or exceeds its specific threshold value at any point from August 3 to August 31, 2026; No otherwise. Thresholds range from $2,950 to $3,600.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Monday, August 3, 2026 is higher than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Monday, August 3, 2026 is lower than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If RUT does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Russell 2000 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the Russell 2000 Index's performance from August 3, 2026, to August 31, 2026. For any given market, if the index reaches or exceeds the specified threshold at any single point during this period, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Data is sourced from Trading View, using the index's natively published level without currency conversion. The index level only needs to touch the threshold once—it does not need to be sustained. Post-expiration revisions to the index are disregarded. If no data is available for the entire evaluation period by the expiration date, all markets except "No data" or "None" resolve to No. Levels are evaluated to two decimal places unless otherwise specified. Kalshi and its data sources are not affiliated with the index provider.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Russell 2000 direction market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing real-time consensus and divergence across platforms. It tracks how traders on different prediction markets price the likelihood of movement in the Russell 2000 index by Sep 1, 2026. You can see overall volume of $29,839 and 24-hour volume of $2,652, plus platform-specific probabilities, giving a clear picture of market sentiment and activity around this event.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the index’s performance relative to the defined threshold at the exact close time, and once authoritative sources confirm the final value, all platforms will settle accordingly.

Key signals that could shift this market include major economic data releases such as nonfarm payrolls or inflation figures, Federal Reserve policy decisions, sector-specific earnings reports from Russell 2000 constituents, and geopolitical developments that affect small-cap sentiment. Sudden shifts in market sentiment or broad risk-on/risk-off moves may also cause rapid re-pricing as traders adjust positions ahead of the Sep 1, 2026 deadline.