TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
James 1:17 (Jesus Is King) - Kid Rock [Official Music Video}
Draw You Out (From The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date. It reflects viewer engagement and popularity trends in music video content over a single day.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 6, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video and resolves to 'Yes' if that video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date. All markets share the same resolution date and chart, with each video representing an independent outcome. The markets are purely descriptive and do not imply any endorsement or affiliation from YouTube. The resolution hinges solely on YouTube's publicly available chart data for the specified day, with no additional qualifications or adjustments applied.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of information and perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. While analysts might focus on specific factors, the market incorporates a wider array of signals. Discrepancies between the two can highlight overlooked factors or differing interpretations of available data, offering valuable insights into the potential outcome of the daily music video selection.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. The closer we get to the resolution date, the more volatile the prices may become as new information emerges and traders refine their predictions about the runner-up daily music video.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the music video that is identified as the runner-up daily music video on YouTube as officially reported by YouTube. The platform will verify the outcome against publicly available data to determine the winning contract. Traders will then be paid out based on the final outcome and their positions in the market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any news regarding the popularity of specific music videos, changes in YouTube's algorithm impacting video recommendations, or major promotional campaigns could all influence trading activity. Unexpected viral trends or artist announcements could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, any official statements from YouTube regarding their daily video selection process could impact the perceived probabilities of different outcomes, leading to price adjustments in this market.
