TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
K/DA - FIRESTARTER ft. MIYEON and SOYEON of i-dle, Sophie Powers, Mimi Webb (Official Music Video)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest position on YouTube's U.S. daily chart for a specific date. Each market focuses on a different song or artist, with the outcome determined by their ranking performance on that day.
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether a specified music video ranks exactly #2 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 30, 2026. If the designated video holds that position, the corresponding market resolves positively; otherwise, it does not. All markets operate independently, with no interaction between them. References to YouTube are strictly descriptive and imply no endorsement or affiliation between YouTube and the market operator. The resolution hinges solely on YouTube's official chart data for the stated date and region.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts for this specific event are limited. However, generally, prediction market odds often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially incorporating information and perspectives that individual analysts might miss. If analysts were to predict a clear frontrunner, we might expect to see that outcome’s price increase on Kalshi. Discrepancies between market prices and analyst expectations can present opportunities for informed traders, but it's crucial to consider the inherent uncertainties involved in predicting future events.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds based on their own research, analysis, and expectations, creating a dynamic and evolving price discovery process. The market's depth and volume influence how quickly prices adjust to new information, and the current volume indicates active participation.
This market resolves around Nov 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official YouTube statistics for the runner-up music video in terms of daily views in the USA on October 30, 2026. The platform will verify the data against publicly available sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders should monitor official announcements and data releases as the resolution date approaches to stay informed.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major news regarding popular artists releasing new music videos, unexpected viral trends on social media platforms like TikTok, and shifts in music streaming preferences could all influence the perceived probabilities of different videos becoming the runner-up. Furthermore, any announcements from YouTube regarding changes to its algorithm or promotional strategies could also move the market. Keep an eye on music industry news and social media buzz to anticipate potential shifts in trading activity within this market.
