TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos chart in the United States for a specific date. Each market corresponds to a different music video, and the outcome depends on the chart ranking of that particular video.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 29, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date. The resolution is based solely on YouTube's official chart ranking, with no consideration for tiebreakers or other positions. All markets are independent, meaning the outcome of one does not affect the others. References to YouTube are purely descriptive and do not imply endorsement or affiliation.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially identifying trends or outcomes that individual analysts might overlook. However, discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies or biases. While analysts may rely on subjective assessments, this market reflects the aggregated predictions of numerous traders, offering a dynamic and evolving perspective on the likely outcome of which music video will be the runner-up. It's important to consider both viewpoints when forming your own assessment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market depth, displayed on the dashboard, indicates the volume of contracts available at various price points, offering insight into the strength of conviction behind different predictions.
This market resolves around Nov 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on which music video receives the second-highest number of views on YouTube's Daily Music Video charts for October 29, 2026. The data will be sourced from publicly available YouTube statistics and verified to ensure accuracy. Traders will then be paid out based on the final outcome and the contracts they hold in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Unexpected popularity surges for emerging artists, viral marketing campaigns, or endorsements from influential figures could all shift the odds. Major music releases scheduled around the resolution date could also impact viewership numbers, potentially altering the predicted outcome. Changes in YouTube's algorithm or promotional strategies could also play a role. Monitoring music news, social media trends, and YouTube analytics will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could influence trading activity in this market.
