TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
expectations (feat. Chappell Roan) (Official Music Video)
Description
This event tracks which music video will secure the second position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos chart in the United States for a specific date in 2026. Participants speculate on the popularity and viewer engagement of various music videos to determine the runner-up for that day.
Kalshi
The event determines the second-place finisher on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 22, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that video ranks #2 on the chart for the specified date. All markets operate independently, with each video's performance evaluated against the same chart position criteria. The secondary rules clarify that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube. The outcome hinges solely on YouTube's official chart ranking for that day, with no additional performance metrics or qualifications affecting the resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a unique perspective, potentially identifying factors that traditional analysts might overlook. While analysts may rely on established metrics and historical data, the wisdom of the crowd in this market incorporates a broader range of information and subjective assessments. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of available data or the inclusion of unforeseen variables influencing the event's outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market depth, displayed on the platform, indicates the volume of buy and sell orders at various price levels, offering insight into potential price movements.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official YouTube view count for the Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on the specified date. The platform will verify the final result against publicly available data to determine the winning outcome. Traders will then be paid out based on their positions in the market, reflecting the accuracy of their predictions regarding the event's conclusion.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected viral trends, major news coverage related to the featured artists, or shifts in YouTube's algorithm could all impact viewership. Changes in promotional activity surrounding the music video, such as increased advertising or celebrity endorsements, could also influence the outcome. Furthermore, any controversies or positive buzz surrounding the artist or song could drive increased engagement and alter the market's perception of the likely winner. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for traders in this market.
