TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 2, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Nickelback - Make Me Love You (Official Music Video)
Taylor Swift - Patient Zero (Official Music Video)
Natanael Cano x Tito Double P x Victor Mendivil x Ovi - OLIVIA LA FLAKA [Oficial Video]
Taylor Swift - Patient Zero (Official Lyric Video)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date. Each option represents a different song or artist, reflecting viewer engagement through real-time streaming data.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if its designated music video secures the runner-up position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for October 2, 2026. The outcome hinges solely on YouTube's official chart ranking for that date, with no consideration for ties or fractional placements. All markets operate independently, meaning the resolution of one does not affect others. References to YouTube in the rules are purely descriptive and imply no endorsement or partnership between YouTube and the event organizer.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting music video chart performance is highly subjective and often relies on qualitative assessments. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and collective intelligence than individual analyst predictions. If analysts were to provide probabilities for a video reaching #2, it would be interesting to see how those compare to the implied probabilities reflected in the prices offered in this market. Discrepancies could indicate areas where the market believes analysts are over or underestimating a video’s potential.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand. As more people buy a contract, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability of that outcome occurring. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the likelihood of that particular music video achieving the #2 ranking on the specified YouTube chart.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos chart dated October 2, 2026, to determine which video ranks at #2. The outcome will be determined by verifying the official chart ranking against credible public sources. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process for this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the release dates, marketing campaigns, or promotional activities of potential contenders would be closely watched. Unexpected viral trends or controversies surrounding a particular artist or song could also cause substantial shifts in the odds. Furthermore, the performance of related videos on YouTube in the weeks leading up to October 2, 2026, could provide valuable insights and influence trading activity in this market. Strong pre-release buzz or critical acclaim could also move the market.
