TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Glimpse of DSP Inbaraj (Respectaa) - From Scene | Suriya | Nazriya Nazim |Sushin Shyam|JithuMadhavan
Ramayana: Mangal Rang (Song) | Namit M, Nitesh T | AR Rahman, Arijit Singh, Shreya Ghoshal, Kumar V
GAVIN:D x Violette Wautier - อย่ามากกว่าฉันก็พอ [IN MY ROOM SESSION]
Veezha Veera (From "OM Chapter 1: Udhiram - The Blood Wood") [Hindi]
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest position on YouTube's global daily chart for a specific date. Participants can speculate on whether any of the listed music videos will secure this runner-up spot, reflecting viewer engagement and popularity trends.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos Global chart for October 29, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and resolution hinges on that video ranking exactly #2 on the specified chart date. All markets operate independently; only the market matching the actual #2 video will resolve positively. YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube or Kalshi. The outcome is strictly based on YouTube's publicly available chart data for the designated date.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting viral music video success is highly subjective and often relies on qualitative factors. However, generally, prediction markets can offer a different perspective than polls or expert opinions. Where polls reflect stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to put their money on. Discrepancies between the market price and analyst expectations can reveal valuable insights into the collective wisdom of forecasters and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, which music video will be the runner-up. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price and probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and reflect the collective beliefs of all participants.
This market resolves around Nov 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos Global chart dated October 29, 2026, will be used to determine which music video ranked as the runner-up. The resolution will be based on the publicly available ranking on that chart, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome. The market will close prior to this date to allow for accurate settlement.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok or Instagram could boost a music video’s popularity, influencing its chart position. Major promotional campaigns by record labels or artists, including collaborations or high-profile media appearances, could also drive viewership. Furthermore, any controversies or positive press surrounding an artist or song could shift public sentiment and affect the market. Finally, the release of competing music videos from popular artists could alter the competitive landscape and move the odds.
