TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip
Ramayana: Ravana Tandav (Song) | Namit M, Nitesh T | Ranbir, Yash | AR Rahman, Vishal D, Kumar V
Veezha Veera Lyrical (Tamil) | OM | Dhanush | Mammootty | Sai Pallavi | Rajkumar | Sai Abhyankkar
GAVIN:D x Violette Wautier - อย่ามากกว่าฉันก็พอ [IN MY ROOM SESSION]
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest view count on YouTube's global daily chart for a specific date. Participants can speculate on whether a particular song or artist's video will secure this position, reflecting viewer engagement trends across diverse musical genres and cultures.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos Global chart for October 23, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and resolution depends solely on that video's ranking. If the designated video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date, the associated market resolves positively; otherwise, it resolves negatively. All markets operate independently, with no cumulative or interdependent effects. References to YouTube are strictly descriptive and imply no endorsement or partnership between the platform and the event organizer.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or expert predictions, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and reacting more quickly to new developments. While analysts may focus on established trends, the market can reflect more nuanced expectations about the event’s outcome. It’s a valuable exercise to see where the crowd diverges from, or agrees with, professional assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event’s likelihood. The market depth, displayed on the dashboard, shows the available contracts at different price points, indicating the level of demand and supply for each outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the runner-up daily music video on YouTube, as determined by official YouTube statistics, will be the basis for settlement. The platform will verify the data against publicly available sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding contracts for the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for incorrect outcomes will not.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Unexpected viral trends, major news coverage of a particular artist or song, or changes in YouTube’s algorithm could all influence the popularity of music videos. Any significant promotional activity, such as a high-profile music video release or a celebrity endorsement, could also shift the odds. Monitoring social media sentiment and tracking the performance of competing videos will be key indicators to watch as we approach the resolution date.
