TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip
GAVIN:D x Violette Wautier - อย่ามากกว่าฉันก็พอ [IN MY ROOM SESSION]
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the second-highest position on YouTube's global daily chart for a specific date. Participants can speculate on whether particular songs will secure this ranking, reflecting viewer engagement and popularity trends.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its specified music video ranks #2 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos Global chart for October 16, 2026. The outcome depends solely on YouTube's official chart data for that date. All markets are independent, meaning the resolution of one does not affect others. YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, with no implied affiliation or endorsement by YouTube. The markets cover a range of musical artists and genres, each with its unique identifier or title, allowing participants to bet on the precise video achieving the runner-up position on the specified chart.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a dynamic interplay between public sentiment and informed analysis. While analysts may offer reasoned predictions based on chart performance and fan engagement, the prediction market reflects a broader range of factors, including viral potential and unexpected trends. Discrepancies can emerge when the market anticipates a surprise hit or discounts a heavily promoted release, showcasing the power of decentralized forecasting in the entertainment space.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different music videos. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that video being the runner-up, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and sentiment, offering a real-time assessment of potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on which music video receives the second-highest number of views on YouTube within the specified timeframe. The data will be sourced from publicly available YouTube analytics, ensuring transparency and objectivity in determining the winning outcome. This ensures a clear and verifiable resolution process for all participants in this daily music video market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. A sudden surge in views for a previously underperforming music video, driven by a viral social media trend or celebrity endorsement, would likely increase its odds. Conversely, negative publicity or controversy surrounding an artist could decrease a video’s chances. Major marketing campaigns launched by record labels, or unexpected collaborations between artists, could also shift market sentiment. Monitoring YouTube trends, social media activity, and music industry news will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts in this market.
