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Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September
World
polymarket

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September

Jul 29, 2026, 6:43 PM EST - Sep 29, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$32,090
Volume 24h:
$4,236
138%
Liquidity:
$18,859
6%
Open interest:
$7,782N/A

No change

 - Polymarket

No change - Polymarket

69%

-27.4%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 26

Aug 27

Vol.

$2.5k

·

Resolves Sep 29, 2026

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?

65%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 69¢ buys you 145 shares | Odds: 65% Total Payout: $145 | Net Profit: $45 Multiplier: 1.45x | ROI: 45% High Projected APY: 5,956% Low liquidity 32 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the RBA September rate decision market tracks real-time odds and price movements on Polymarket. It shows how traders are betting on whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise, cut, or hold rates at its September meeting. You can also see the latest 24-hour volume of $4,026 and historical price charts, giving you a clear view of market sentiment as the decision approaches.

Currently, this market suggests a 64.9% probability for the most likely outcome, which often aligns closely with consensus analyst forecasts. However, traders may price in nuances such as unexpected economic data releases or shifts in rhetoric from the RBA, potentially creating small gaps between market expectations and traditional polling averages.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders continuously submit bids and asks that determine the current implied probability for each possible rate outcome. The top outcome’s displayed chance reflects the aggregated wisdom of all participants, with price adjustments happening instantly as new trades are placed. Market depth and liquidity levels influence how quickly prices shift in response to major news or analyst commentary.

This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final decision will be based on the official announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia regarding its September policy move.

Economic data releases — such as Australian employment figures, inflation readings, or GDP growth estimates — will heavily influence this market as they shape expectations around monetary policy. Speeches from RBA officials, global central bank decisions, and sudden geopolitical developments can also cause rapid shifts in implied probabilities. Closer to Sep 29, 2026, any last-minute policy hints from the RBA governor or unexpected shocks will most likely produce the sharpest movements.