TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.9b

24H VOL:

$84,685,924

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,100,123

337,636

Markets across

33,310

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,273

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

Time left: 04d:09h:51m

Will Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in August?

88%chance
Amount

$

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple precipitation thresholds for September 2026 at Central Park in New York City. Each market corresponds to a progressively higher rainfall amount, resolving to 'Yes' if the total monthly precipitation strictly exceeds its specified threshold—1 inch, 2 inches, 3 inches, or 4 inches. All markets share the same measurement source and time frame, with resolution based solely on the final recorded total. Higher-threshold markets inherently require more extreme conditions to settle positively, creating a tiered structure where outcomes cascade: any excess over 4 inches would satisfy all thresholds, while amounts between 3 and 4 inches would resolve only the lower three markets as 'Yes', and so on. No adjustments or external interpretations apply—raw data determines all outcomes simultaneously.