TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether the film *Other Mommy* will receive a Tomatometer score above 45% on Rotten Tomatoes. Currently, the probability of this occurring on Kalshi is 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by the Tomatometer score as reported by Rotten Tomatoes, specifically if it is above 45% on October 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Keep a close eye on the film’s initial critical reception following its release, as the Tomatometer score will be finalized by October 12, 2026.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score for 'Other Mommy' as measured on October 12, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Each market has a specific threshold; if the score exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. For example, a score of 75 would not satisfy markets with thresholds above 75, despite meeting lower thresholds. Determination occurs the Monday following the film's wide release. Note that these markets are independent of official Rotten Tomatoes endorsements, and references to Rotten Tomatoes are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective prediction differs from expert opinion. Often, prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional analyst reports. While analysts may focus on specific aspects like trailer reception or director history, this market reflects a broader assessment of the film's likely Rotten Tomatoes score, factoring in potentially unforeseen influences. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates a different outcome than experts, or where the market has access to information not yet reflected in analyst predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different Rotten Tomatoes score outcomes for Other Mommy. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic assessment of the film’s prospects. Essentially, the market price represents the aggregated belief of all participants regarding the final Rotten Tomatoes score.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final Rotten Tomatoes score for Other Mommy is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to the Rotten Tomatoes score as published on the official Rotten Tomatoes website. Traders should monitor news and reviews leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts that could influence the final score. The resolution will reflect the consensus of critics as aggregated by Rotten Tomatoes, providing a clear and objective outcome for this market.
Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Early critical reviews, particularly those from prominent publications, will likely have a substantial impact. Positive buzz from film festivals or early screenings could also drive up the probability of a higher Rotten Tomatoes score. Conversely, negative reactions or controversies surrounding the film could lower expectations. The release of the official trailer and subsequent audience reception will also be key indicators. Any significant marketing campaigns or changes in release dates could also influence trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market.
